U.S. stock futures point up ahead of the release of the all-important June nonfarm payrolls report. Investors were also pouring through a preliminary trade deal between the U.S. and Vietnam, as the White House pushes to forge pacts with individual countries with the expiration of delayed "reciprocal" tariffs just days away. Elsewhere, U.S. House Republican leaders face some resistance as they attempt to finalize and pass President Donald Trump’s signature policy bill before a self-imposed Fourth of July deadline.
1. Futures rise
U.S. stock futures ticked slightly higher on Thursday, as investors geared up for key jobs data and assessed the outlook for U.S. trade talks.
By 03:30 ET (07:30 GMT), The Dow futures contract had risen by 39 points, or 0.1%, S&P 500 futures had climbed by 6 points, or 0.1%, and Nasdaq 100 futures had increased by 33 points, or 0.1%. Thursday will be the final day of U.S. trading before markets close for the July 4 holiday.
The main averages on Wall Street mostly gained on Wednesday, with the benchmark S&P 500 and tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite both posting fresh record closes. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was the laggard, finishing the session broadly unchanged, although the blue-chip index remained within striking distance of its all-time peak.
Sentiment was bolstered by Trump’s unveiling of a trade agreement with Vietnam, a key source of imported goods like footwear and athletic apparel. Meanwhile, big-name tech stocks moved up, including Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) and Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL).
Stocks were initially dented by an unexpected dip in a monthly indicator of U.S. private payrolls, but markets appeared to widely interpret the data point as a sign that the Federal Reserve will move to aggressively cut interest rates in the coming months.
2. NFPs ahead
A more crucial gauge of the American labor market is due out on Thursday.
Economists predict that the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ June nonfarm payrolls report will show that the U.S. economy added 111,000 roles, down from 139,000 in May. The unemployment rate is also seen edging up slightly to 4.3% from 4.2%.
The ADP National Employment Report on Wednesday suggested that, against tariff-fueled economic uncertainty, firms are hiring less and workers are more reticent to leave their current jobs. However, there is little correlation between the ADP and BLS numbers.
Fed policymakers — who are partly tasked with aiming for maxiumum employment — will likely be keeping close tabs on incoming labor market data, especially as they remain wary of the impact of Trump’s tariff agenda on the wider economy. Fed Chair Jerome Powell, who has faced intensifying pressure from Trump to quickly slash rates, has backed a cautious approach to future interest rate changes, but did say this week that the central bank could bring down borrowing costs at its four remaining policy meetings this year.
3. Trump announces Vietnam trade deal
Stocks on Wednesday erased their early losses after Trump announced a trade deal with Vietnam that will set a 20% tariff rate on items incoming from the Southeast Asian nation.
Analysts noted that this rate was lower than the punishing “reciprocal” levy Trump unveiled at his “Liberation Day” event in early April. Shares in Nike (NYSE:NKE) and other athletic-wear groups who sell products from Vietnam gained.
The agreement also places a 40% tariff on so-called “transshipping,” a move that could indirectly have consequences for China. The White House has claimed that countries like Vietnam have become conduits for Chinese goods to be sent to the U.S. while evading heightened American duties.
While preliminary and abbreviated compared to traditionally more comprehensive trade pacts, the deal was seen as an indication that the Trump administration was making progress in reaching new trade accords prior to the re-imposition of the now-paused reciprocal tariffs later this month. Trump has previously reached trade truces with China and Britain, and has hinted at a possible deal with India.
4. U.S. lifts chip design export restrictions on China
Elsewhere, the U.S. Commerce Department has lifted restrictions on chip design technology exports to China, company statements showed on Wednesday evening, as part of a recent trade agreement between Washington and Beijing.
Chip designers Synopsys (NASDAQ:SNPS) and Cadence Design (NASDAQ:CDNS) Systems shares rose sharply after the announcements, 24-hour trading data showed. Synopsys was last up 5.8% at $553.67, while Cadence rose 4.7% to $325.58.
Synopys said in a statement that it was informed by the U.S. Department of Commerce that restrictions on its exports to China, which were imposed in late-May, have now been rescinded effective immediately.
The company said it was now “working to restore access to the recently restricted products in China.”
5. House GOP leaders attempt to woo holdouts to Trump policy bill
Investors are also paying attention to developments in Washington, where Republicans in the U.S. House of Representatives are haggling into the small hours of the morning over passing the Senate’s version of a massive, Trump-backed tax-cuts and spending bill.
GOP legislators are racing to soothe intraparty worries over the laundry list of measures, which would, among a host of reforms, extend Trump’s 2017 tax reductions and create new tax breaks while boosting spending on defense and border security.
Securing enough Republican support for the bill remains crucial, given the party’s narrow majorities in Congress and united Democratic opposition. But some conservative lawmakers have voiced fears that the bill would expand the nation’s already-ballooning debt pile and raised concerns over its proposed cuts to Medicaid, a federal program for low-income Americans.
Republican leaders are also under a time crunch. Trump has set a Fourth of July deadline for having the bill approved by Congress and on his desk to be signed into law.