Gold prices rose in Asian trade on Friday, recouping some recent losses after safe haven demand was buoyed by U.S. President Donald Trump threatening more trade tariffs, while geopolitical tensions in the Middle East also helped.

Strength in the dollar– which was headed for a weekly gain– kept gains in gold and most other metals subdued on Friday. But silver and platinum were set for strong weekly gains, vastly outperforming gold as they notched fresh multi-year highs this week. 

Among industrial metals, U.S. copper futures fell sharply from recent peaks, seeing some profit-taking after Trump’s tariff threat drove stellar gains in the red metal earlier this week. 

Spot gold rose 0.5% to $3,341.27 an ounce, while gold futures for September rose 0.9% to $3,354.60/oz by 01:28 ET (05:28 GMT). 

Trump’s Canada tariff threat, Middle East tensions boost havens 

Trump on Thursday evening said he will impose 35% tariff on Canada from August 1, higher than his previously threatened 25% tariffs and also blindsiding Ottawa after some signs of improving trade relations.

The announcement sparked a risk-off move across major risk-driven assets, and spurred some gains in havens such as gold, and the yen.

On the geopolitical front, signs of little immediate deescalation in the Israel-Hamas war, as Jerusalem continued to launch attacks against the Gaza Strip, kept geopolitical tensions high in the Middle East. 

U.S. efforts to broker a ceasefire appeared to have yielded little progress in the past week, despite the White House’s claims that a deal was close. 

This trend offered gold some relief, although the yellow metal was nursing a muted weekly performance as it came under pressure from a recovery in the dollar. Speculation over the path of U.S. interest rates also weighed on gold, with the yellow metal remaining squarely within a $3,300/oz to $3,500/oz trading range seen for most of the year. 

Platinum, silver greatly outpace gold in recent weeks

Platinum and silver prices steadied near multi-year peaks, and were headed for weekly gains of between 1.9% and 3%. Both metals shot past gold in recent weeks, as they both benefited from increased speculation over tighter supplies and increasing demand in the coming months. 

Platinum was set for a sixth consecutive week of gains, as the white metal continued to benefit from a bullish industry report released in late-May. Platinum futures rose 0.3% to $1,420.25/oz and were close a 11-year high.

Silver futures rose for a third straight week, and were up 2.2% to $38.140/oz on Friday– their highest level in nearly 14 years. 

Among industrial metals, COMEX U.S. copper futures fell 1.2% to $5.5620 a pound, seeing extended profit-taking after Trump’s threat of a 50% tariff on the red metal sparked strong gains this week. U.S. copper futures had briefly hit record highs.

Benchmark copper futures on the London Metal Exchange were flat at $9,700.55 a ton. 

U.S. stock futures inch lower as investors assess a new salvo in President Donald Trump’s ongoing tariff agenda. Brazil is the latest target of Trump’s levies, with the president hitting out at the nation over its treatment of a political ally. Elsewhere, minutes from the Federal Reserve’s latest meeting suggest that policymakers believe interest rate cuts could be appropriate this year, while WK Kellogg (NYSE:KLG) shares spike after-hours following a report that Ferrero is nearing a purchase of the cereal maker.

1. Futures lower

U.S. stock futures pointed lower on Thursday after Trump threatened Brazil with elevated tariffs, opening up a fresh front in his aggressive trade agenda.

By 03:42 ET (07:42 GMT), the Dow futures contract had fallen by 125 points, or 0.3%, S&P 500 futures had dropped by 15 points, or 0.2%, and Nasdaq 100 futures had dipped by 47 points, or 0.2%.

The main averages on Wall Street rose in the prior session, buoyed by meeting minutes from the Federal Reserve which sparked hopes that the central bank will eventually slash interest rates this year.

Amid the gains, shares of artificial intelligence-darling Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) jumped by 1.8%, giving it a market capitalization of $3.97 trillion. During the session, the company briefly became the first to ever notch a market value of $4 trillion.

Nvidia’s increase fueled a rise in the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite to an all-time closing high.

"[T]he big driver of the recent advance is a belief that tariffs will either be watered down from the current threat levels and/or have only a benign effect on inflation while other categories of the economy [...] cause prices in aggregate to move in a disinflationary direction, opening the door for the Fed to resume policy easing," analysts at Vital Knowledge said in a note to clients.

2. Trump threatens Brazil with 50% tariffs

Still, Trump’s continued trade battles have led to some investors remaining cautious around the broader trajectory of the economy.

In the latest salvo in what has been a flurry of trade-related headlines this week, the president said he planned to slap a 50% tariff on all imports from Brazil. The levies, which would come into effect from August 1, were partially a response to Trump’s anger at the perceived mistreatment of former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro, his political ally in the South American country.

Trump wrote in a letter to Brazil’s current President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva that the treatment of Bolsonaro -- who is facing a trial for attempting to carry out a coup -- is "an international disgrace."

The 50% levies would be the highest rate out of a slew of letters sent out by Trump this week, which were issued following his decision to postpone a deadline for the implementation of his so-called "reciprocal" duties to August 1. They had previously been set to come into force on Wednesday, after an initial pause in April.

Analysts have suggested that the move is more politically motivated than related to trade grievances. Brazil is the 15th-largest U.S. trading partner and a rare net importer of American goods.

Separately, Trump also said he would place a 50% tariff on imported copper, reiterating a statement he made on Wednesday. Trump wrote on his social media platform that he had received a national security report detailing the importance of the red metal.

3. Fed minutes in focus

Trump’s tariffs remain one of the major driving forces behind an uptick in broad-based uncertainty that has dented consumer confidence and complicated investment decisions for businesses.

The Fed has also cited the levies as a key reason why it has chosen to largely adopt a wait-and-see attitude to future interest rate reductions. Many economists have flagged that the tariffs could push up inflationary pressures and weigh on growth.

Minutes from the Fed’s latest gathering in June appeared to bolster this feeling, with the document showing that just "a couple" of policymakers found it appropriate to consider cutting borrowing costs as soon as this month. The comments come even as Trump himself has frequently criticized Chair Jerome Powell for not moving quickly to slash rates, even going as far as calling for Powell’s resignation.

Powell has stayed mostly steadfast in his support of a more cautious Fed stance in recent weeks, but has indicated that a cut is still possible this year. "Most participants" at the Fed meeting believed a drawdown would be appropriate later in 2025, with price shocks from tariffs tipped to be "temporary or modest," the minutes showed.

4. WK Kellogg spikes on report Ferrero nearing acquisition - WSJ

Shares of WK Kellogg surged in extended hours trading after the Wall Street Journal reported that family-owned Italian candy group Ferrero is closing in on a roughly $3 billion deal to buy the cereal maker.

Citing people familiar with the matter, the WSJ reported that Ferrero -- the company behind brands like Ferrero Rocher and Nutella -- could finalize the deal for WK Kellogg as soon as this week should there be no last minute wrinkles in the negotiations.

A deal would bring Ferrero together with WK Kellogg, the firm famous for its breakfast cereals like Froot Loops and Rice Krispies that have become supermarket staples.

Ferrero has been on the hunt for U.S. acquisitions as it eyes international expansion and growth in its offerings. It has previously purchased Blue Bunny-manufacturer Wells Enterprises and rival Nestle’s U.S. chocolate unit.

WK Kellogg, which is itself a result of Kellogg spinning off its North American cereal business around two years ago, is facing a shift in behavior among inflation-hit and more health-conscious shoppers.

5. TSMC sales top forecasts

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co (TSMC) (TW:2330) on Thursday posted a 39% jump in second-quarter sales, surpassing market expectations thanks to strong global demand for AI chips.

According to the company’s monthly sales, the total figure for the April-June period came in at NT$933.8 billion ($31.9 billion), exceeding LSEG estimates of NTT$927.83 billion.

It also topped TSMC’s prior guidance range of $28.4 billion to $29.2 billion issued in April.

The strong revenue performance underscores robust global appetite for advanced chips, particularly those tailored for artificial intelligence workloads.

TSMC, the world’s largest contract chipmaker, counts key clients such as Nvidia and iPhone-maker Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) among its customer base.

U.S. stock futures are mostly quiet, with traders digesting a slew of tariff news this week and gearing up for minutes from the Federal Reserve’s June policy meeting. President Donald Trump insists that his new tariff deadline will not be altered, while hinting at broadening his trade agenda to include a 50% tariff on copper. Meanwhile, White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett is reportedly a major contender to be Trump’s pick to replace current Fed Chair Jerome Powell.

1. Futures muted

U.S. stock futures were muted on Wednesday as investors assessed tariff comments from Trump and looked ahead to the release of minutes from the Federal Reserve’s latest meeting.

By 03:31 ET (07:31 GMT), the Dow futures contract were broadly unchanged, S&P 500 futures had dropped by 3 points, or 0.1%, and Nasdaq 100 futures had edged down by 14 points, or 0.1%.

The main averages on Wall Street were mixed at the end of trading on Tuesday, with sentiment broadly steady despite a flurry of trade-related headlines. Trump sent out letters to a slew of countries detailing the elevated levies they now face, but markets took heart from the White House’s decision to extend the deadline for these duties to kick in to August 1. The tariffs were previously set to come into effect today.

“Market participants have largely shrugged off President Trump’s latest set of threats to raise tariffs on a range of countries, focusing on the fact that today’s ;deadline’ for re-imposing the “reciprocal tariffs” from 2nd April has, as widely expected, been extended,” said Jonas Goltermann, Deputy Chief Markets Economist at Capital Economics, in a note.

2. Trump says copper tariffs incoming

Still, Trump insisted at a cabinet meeting on Tuesday that the new deadline will not be pushed back any further, after stating earlier this week that it was “not 100% firm.” He added that negotiations are going well with the European Union and China, but flagged that the EU is days away from receiving its own tariff letter.

The president also raised the prospect of a 50% tariff on imported copper, in the latest sign that his aggressive trade agenda involves not just countries, but specific sectors as well. Copper is a particularly crucial metal who uses apply to vehicle production, military hardware, power grid infrastructure and more.

Other levies on everything from pharmaceuticals to semiconductors could soon be unveiled, Trump suggested.

Meanwhile, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent claimed that Trump’s levies have raked in $100 billion in income for the U.S. this year and predicted that the number could climb to $300 billion by the end of December. Bessent flagged that the major collections began in the second quarter, when Trump instituted a baseline 10% duty and lifted tariffs on items like steel, aluminum and autos.

Analysts have noted that tariff revenues have become key for the White House, as the funds could help offset the cost of a multi-trillion-dollar tax-cuts and spending package which Trump signed into law last week.

3. FOMC minutes ahead

Traders are now keeping tabs on the upcoming publication of the minutes from the Fed’s June meeting, as they hunt for possible insights into how the central bank sees interest rates evolving in the coming months.

Policymakers left borrowing costs unchanged at a target range of 4.25% to 4.5% at the gathering, citing the prudence of a wait-and-see approach to future decisions as the impact of Trump’s tariffs becomes clearer.

At recent events, Fed Chair Jerome Powell has reiterated the argument for this cautious stance, but indicated that officials would probably have already been cutting rates if not for the uncertainty around the tariffs.

Investors have largely stuck to bets that the Fed will slash rates twice before the end of 2025, with the first expected to come in September, potentially followed by another in December.

But the trajectory remains murky, especially as Powell faces intensifying pressure from Trump to quickly reduce rates. Trump again hit out at the Fed leader on Tuesday, calling him "terrible" and urging him to resign so he can appoint a new chair who will lower borrowing costs.

4. Hassett among top contenders to become next Fed Chair - WSJ

White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett is emerging as a “serious contender” to replace Powell as the next Fed Chair, the Wall Street Journal reported on Tuesday.

Hassett is one of Trump’s closest economic advisers, and is now seen as a preferred pick over earlier favorite Kevin Warsh, a former Fed governor, the WSJ reported.

Hassett met Trump over the Fed job at least twice in June, the WSJ report said, citing people familiar with the matter.

The WSJ report comes amid speculation that Trump could expedite his selection of Powell’s successor, possibly unveiling the decision later this year. Trump had appointed Powell to the post in 2017.

5. Oil subdued

Crude prices hovered around the flatline after industry data showed a sharp increase in U.S. crude inventories amid concerns tariffs could curb demand for oil.

At 03:30 ET, Brent futures had inched up by 0.1% to $70.19 a barrel and U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures were mostly unchanged at $68.36 a barrel.

Both contracts climbed to a two-week high on Tuesday, driven by supply disruption concerns which stemmed from fresh Houthi attacks on Red Sea shipping lanes.

The American Petroleum Institute reported during the previous session a sharp, unexpected rise in U.S. crude oil inventories for the week ending on July 4, with a build of 7.1 million barrels, far exceeding the forecast 2.8 million‑barrel draw.

Market watchers now await confirmation from the Energy Information Administration report, due later in the day, especially as the Independence Day holiday weekend usually sees strong travel demand.

Gold prices steadied in Asian trade on Tuesday after U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariff threats spurred some safe haven demand, although a recovery in the dollar limited gains in metal markets. 

The yellow metal advanced on Monday after Trump released letters outlining steep tariffs against several major Asian and African countries. But Trump also postponed his tariff deadline to August 1 and signaled openness to more trade talks.

The dollar firmed on Trump’s tariff threat, while expectations of steady U.S. rates in the near-term also benefited the greenback. Strength in the dollar pressured metal markets. 

Spot gold fell marginally to $3,334.22 an ounce, while gold futures for September were flat at $3,343.70/oz by 01:22 ET (05:22 GMT). 

Trump tariff comments buoy risk, limit gold upside 

Trump told reporters on Monday that he was not a “100% firm” on his August 1 deadline, and that his administration was open to more trade dialogue.

His comments, coupled with the recent postponement of the July 9 deadline, spurred some bets that the president will not make good on his tariff threats. 

This notion boosted risk appetite on Tuesday, with Asian stocks advancing and Wall Street futures reversing early losses. 

Still, Trump released a slew of letters on Monday outlining higher trade tariffs on several Asian and African countries. These include a 25% tariff on South Korea, Japan, Malaysia, and Kazakhstan, a 30% duty on South Africa, a 32% duty on Indonesia, a 35% levy on Bangladesh, and a 36% levy on Thailand. 

The letters had battered risk appetite, sparking steep losses on Wall Street while also helping gold prices advance.

The yellow metal was nursing a largely rangebound performance in recent weeks, as risk-aversion around Trump’s tariffs was limited, while strong U.S. economic data saw traders pricing in a smaller chance that U.S. interest rates will fall in the near-term. 

But gold still remained in sight of a $3,500 record high hit earlier this year. 

Dollar strength weighs on metal prices, Fed minutes awaited 

The dollar fell slightly in Asian trade on Tuesday, but was sitting on a sharp overnight bounce following Trump’s tariff letters. 

The greenback largely maintained its rebound from recent three-year lows, especially as strong U.S. economic data fueled bets that the Federal Reserve will not cut interest rates in the coming months. Trump’s tariff threats also spurred some demand for the greenback, amid fears that the levies will be inflationary for the U.S. economy.

Strength in the dollar weighed on metal prices, limiting their upside on Tuesday. Platinum futures rose 0.1% to $1,383.75/oz, while silver futures rose 0.3% to $37.008/oz, with both metals remaining close to recent multi-year highs. 

Among industrial metals, benchmark copper futures on the London Metal Exchange rose 0.2% to $9,839.80 a ton, while U.S. copper futures rose 0.4% to $5.0260 a pound.

The minutes of the Fed’s June meeting are due later this week, and are expected to provide more insight into the central bank’s plans to cut interest rates. The Fed had maintained a largely hawkish stance during the meeting, remaining non-committal towards further easing. 

U.S. stock index futures fell Monday amid growing uncertainty over President Donald Trump’s plans for trade tariffs. 

At 05:15 ET (09:15 GMT), Dow Jones Futures fell 115 points, or 0.3%, S&P 500 Futures dropped 32 points, or 0.5%, and Nasdaq 100 Futures slipped 145 points, or 0.6%. 

The main averages were closed on Friday for the Independence Day holiday, and a period of profit-taking looks likely after the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq hit record highs on Thursday. 

Caution over trade negotiations 

Wall Street is set to start the new week on a cautious note with the expiration of a pause to Trump’s heightened reciprocal tariffs set to end on July 9, with the trade talks having only yielded preliminary deals with the United Kingdom and Vietnam, as well as a trade truce with China.

Trump has said that the White House will shortly begin to send out letters to U.S trading partners outlining their new tariff rates, although some confusion has surrounded when the levies would come into effect, with media reports suggesting that rates may not kick in until August 1.

Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick told reporters on Sunday that Trump will be setting the rates and potential deals now, while Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent had earlier said the tariffs will be imposed as outlined in April if no trade deals were reached by August 1. 

This left markets uncertain over just how high Trump’s tariffs will be, given that the president had in early-April announced tariffs going as high as 50% on major economies, while he also said over the weekend that the rates could reach 60% or 70%. 

Adding to the uncertainty, Trump also said that countries aligned with the BRICS bloc will face an extra levy over allegedly anti-American practices.

Trump has repeatedly criticized the bloc, which consists of founding members Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa, over its efforts to develop new trade alternatives to the United States.

Fed minutes due Wednesday 

There’s little on the economic data slate Monday, and so eyes are likely to turn to the release of the minutes of the latest Federal Reserve policy meeting on Wednesday, with investors keen for more insight into how policymakers see interest rates evolving over the rest of the year.

At its gathering in June, the U.S. central bank chose to leave borrowing costs unchanged at a target range of 4.25% to 4.5%, arguing that a wait-and-see approach continued to be appropriate as more clarity emerged around the impact of Trump’s tariffs on the broader economy.

Tesla hit hard 

There are only a few major companies scheduled to report earnings this week, including Delta Air Lines (NYSE:DAL), packaged foods group Conagra Brands (NYSE:CAG) and jeans-maker Levi Strauss (NYSE:LEVI).

Elsewhere, Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) shares fell sharply premarket after CEO Elon Musk said he will launch a new political party, as investors fear that the move will likely further divert his attention away from the company. 

Brokerage firm Wedbush warned in a Sunday note that Musk diving deeper into politics is “exactly the opposite direction” that Tesla investors and shareholders want from the CEO, especially as the electric car company grapples with declining sales and prepares a pivot into autonomous vehicles. 

Musk’s announcement of the “America Party” also comes amid a bitter public feud between the Tesla CEO and U.S. President Donald Trump, especially over the recently-approved “Big Beautiful Bill.” 

Crude bounces from OPEC+-inspired losses 

Crude prices rose Monday, overturning earlier losses after OPEC+ announced plans to increase output more than expected in August.

At 05:15 ET, Brent futures climbed 0.3% to $68.47 a barrel and U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures rose 0.5% to $66.82 a barrel.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, a group known as OPEC+, announced on Saturday that it will increase oil output by 548,000 barrels per day (bpd) in August.

The hike is larger than the 411,000 bpd increases already implemented for May, June, and July. The group also warned that it will consider another 548,000 bpd hike in September at the next meeting on August 3.

It marks a continued rollback of the voluntary 2.2 million bpd in cuts that major producers like Saudi Arabia and Russia had initiated earlier this year to support prices.

However, the market was also supported by the news that Saudi Arabia raised the August price for its flagship Arab Light crude to a four-month high for Asia, in a show of confidence in oil demand by the world’s largest crude exporter.

Two major U.S. stock average log fresh record closing highs to end a holiday-shortened trading week, although the buoyant mood fails to extend into Europe with uncertainty still swirling around an aggressive U.S. trade agenda. The U.S. Congress passes President Donald Trump’s giant policy bill, in a key legislative win that came despite some intraparty detractors. Trump also suggests Hamas could deliver its decision on a temporary ceasefire with Israel in the coming hours.

1. S&P 500, Nasdaq notch record closes

The benchmark S&P 500 and tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite both logged fresh all-time peaks on Thursday, as investors cheered a strong U.S. jobs report and shrugged off predictions that the Federal Reserve would now opt not to slash interest rates this month.

By the end of trading on the final day of a holiday-shortened week, the S&P 500 had climbed by 0.8% and the Nasdaq had advanced by 1.0%. The blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average also gained 0.7%, hovering within striking distance of its own record high. Stock markets in the U.S. will be shuttered on Friday for the Independence Day holiday.

Labor Department data showed that the U.S. added more roles than anticipated in June, although the numbers masked a slowdown in private hiring to an eight-month low. The unemployment also ticked down to 4.1%, but this was partly driven by more Americans choosing to leave the workforce, while a decline in the length of the average work week suggested that businesses may be ratcheting down hours.

Still, the figures underlined broad resilience in the labor market that, coupled with recently benign inflationary pressures, could persuade Fed policymakers to hold off on cutting borrowing costs at their next two-day gathering on July 29-30.

Meanwhile, in individual stocks, Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA)’s market capitalization surged to nearly $4 trillion. The designer of high-end artificial intelligence chips and focal point of a boom in enthusiasm around the nascent technology is now on pace to become the most valuable company in history.

2. Congress passes Trump’s signature policy bill

The House of Representatives approved the Senate’s version of President Trump’s massive tax-cuts and spending bill, as Republicans in the lower chamber won over party holdouts to overcome staunch Democratic opposition.

It marks a significant victory for Trump, who has invested much of his political capital into pushing the bill through Congress prior to a self-imposed July 4 deadline. Trump is now due to sign it into law at an event on Friday.

Trump has argued that the measures -- which included an extension to his 2017 tax cuts and other promised tax reductions as well as elevated spending on defense and border security -- will fuel economic growth. He told reporters that the bill would now put the U.S. on a "rocket ship."

But the bill’s detractors, including a handful of Republicans, have voiced concerns around its impact on the nation’s finances. Key food-assistance and health care programs would also be cut, and tax breaks for clean energy projects rolled back, to help offset the costs of the bill.

The Congressional Budget Office has estimated that it will add more than $3 trillion to the already sky-high U.S. debt pile and remove health coverage for millions of Americans. The White House has disputed the forecasts.

3. Trump to send out tariff letters

But, even with the unexpectedly solid labor market figures and Trump’s sprawling policy bill now in the rearview mirror, lingering uncertainty over U.S. tariffs has dampened what was an otherwise upbeat vibe heading into the Fourth of July weekend.

Attention is now turning to the upcoming expiration of a pause to sweeping "reciprocal" levies next week, with investors unclear over how Trump will approach the deadline.

Despite claims at the beginning of the 90-day delay that the Trump administration would pursue individual trade deals with dozens of countries, Washington has only revealed framework pacts with three nations: China, Britain and, earlier this week, Vietnam. Trump has suggested that a "couple" more could soon be revealed.

But the president has appeared to pivot away from the goal of securing a raft of these agreements, saying that he will start sending letters out to trading partners on Friday specifying what tariff rates they will incur on imported goods into the U.S.

He seemed to acknowledge the difficulty of negotiating trade deals with as many as 170 countries, saying "they’re very much more complicated."

4. Trump expects Hamas ceasefire decision in 24 hours

Elsewhere, Trump said it will be known in 24 hours if the Palestinian militant group Hamas has agreed to accept a ceasefire deal with Israel.

Both sides have been engaged in brutal fighting for decades, but the latest bout of violence began in October 2023 when Hamas attacked Israel.

Trump noted earlier this week that Israel had agreed to the conditions of a 60-day halt to hostilities that could open the door to a more permanent end to the war.

Citing a source close to Hamas, Reuters reported that the group was seeking guarantees that the U.S.-backed framework truce would lead to peace.

Meanwhile, Trump hinted that the Abraham Accords, a deal signed in his first term that aimed to normalize relations between Israel and some Gulf states, could be expanded. "I think a lot of people are going to be joining the Abraham Accords," he said.

5. Oil prices choppy

Crude prices hovered around the flatline in thin trading ahead of the weekend’s OPEC+ meeting, which is expected to result in an increase in production.

At 03:42 ET, Brent futures dropped 0.1% to $68.75 a barrel and U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures added 0.1% to $67.05 a barrel.

Both contracts were up between 1% to 2% this week, bouncing back from double-digit losses during the prior week.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, known as OPEC+, is expected to once again hike production by 411,000 barrels a day in August, at the weekend’s meeting, following similar hikes in the past three months.

The production hikes come as the OPEC+ scales back two years of sharp production cuts, in part to offset the economic impact of persistently low oil prices.

Elsewhere, U.S. news website Axios reported on Thursday that the U.S. was planning to meet with Iran next week to restart nuclear talk, while Iran Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said Tehran remains committed to the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.

U.S. stock futures point up ahead of the release of the all-important June nonfarm payrolls report. Investors were also pouring through a preliminary trade deal between the U.S. and Vietnam, as the White House pushes to forge pacts with individual countries with the expiration of delayed "reciprocal" tariffs just days away. Elsewhere, U.S. House Republican leaders face some resistance as they attempt to finalize and pass President Donald Trump’s signature policy bill before a self-imposed Fourth of July deadline.

1. Futures rise

U.S. stock futures ticked slightly higher on Thursday, as investors geared up for key jobs data and assessed the outlook for U.S. trade talks.

By 03:30 ET (07:30 GMT), The Dow futures contract had risen by 39 points, or 0.1%, S&P 500 futures had climbed by 6 points, or 0.1%, and Nasdaq 100 futures had increased by 33 points, or 0.1%. Thursday will be the final day of U.S. trading before markets close for the July 4 holiday.

The main averages on Wall Street mostly gained on Wednesday, with the benchmark S&P 500 and tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite both posting fresh record closes. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was the laggard, finishing the session broadly unchanged, although the blue-chip index remained within striking distance of its all-time peak.

Sentiment was bolstered by Trump’s unveiling of a trade agreement with Vietnam, a key source of imported goods like footwear and athletic apparel. Meanwhile, big-name tech stocks moved up, including Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) and Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL).

Stocks were initially dented by an unexpected dip in a monthly indicator of U.S. private payrolls, but markets appeared to widely interpret the data point as a sign that the Federal Reserve will move to aggressively cut interest rates in the coming months.

2. NFPs ahead

A more crucial gauge of the American labor market is due out on Thursday.

Economists predict that the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ June nonfarm payrolls report will show that the U.S. economy added 111,000 roles, down from 139,000 in May. The unemployment rate is also seen edging up slightly to 4.3% from 4.2%.

The ADP National Employment Report on Wednesday suggested that, against tariff-fueled economic uncertainty, firms are hiring less and workers are more reticent to leave their current jobs. However, there is little correlation between the ADP and BLS numbers.

Fed policymakers — who are partly tasked with aiming for maxiumum employment — will likely be keeping close tabs on incoming labor market data, especially as they remain wary of the impact of Trump’s tariff agenda on the wider economy. Fed Chair Jerome Powell, who has faced intensifying pressure from Trump to quickly slash rates, has backed a cautious approach to future interest rate changes, but did say this week that the central bank could bring down borrowing costs at its four remaining policy meetings this year.

3. Trump announces Vietnam trade deal

Stocks on Wednesday erased their early losses after Trump announced a trade deal with Vietnam that will set a 20% tariff rate on items incoming from the Southeast Asian nation.

Analysts noted that this rate was lower than the punishing “reciprocal” levy Trump unveiled at his “Liberation Day” event in early April. Shares in Nike (NYSE:NKE) and other athletic-wear groups who sell products from Vietnam gained.

The agreement also places a 40% tariff on so-called “transshipping,” a move that could indirectly have consequences for China. The White House has claimed that countries like Vietnam have become conduits for Chinese goods to be sent to the U.S. while evading heightened American duties.

While preliminary and abbreviated compared to traditionally more comprehensive trade pacts, the deal was seen as an indication that the Trump administration was making progress in reaching new trade accords prior to the re-imposition of the now-paused reciprocal tariffs later this month. Trump has previously reached trade truces with China and Britain, and has hinted at a possible deal with India.

4. U.S. lifts chip design export restrictions on China

Elsewhere, the U.S. Commerce Department has lifted restrictions on chip design technology exports to China, company statements showed on Wednesday evening, as part of a recent trade agreement between Washington and Beijing.

Chip designers Synopsys (NASDAQ:SNPS) and Cadence Design (NASDAQ:CDNS) Systems shares rose sharply after the announcements, 24-hour trading data showed. Synopsys was last up 5.8% at $553.67, while Cadence rose 4.7% to $325.58.

Synopys said in a statement that it was informed by the U.S. Department of Commerce that restrictions on its exports to China, which were imposed in late-May, have now been rescinded effective immediately.

The company said it was now “working to restore access to the recently restricted products in China.”

5. House GOP leaders attempt to woo holdouts to Trump policy bill

Investors are also paying attention to developments in Washington, where Republicans in the U.S. House of Representatives are haggling into the small hours of the morning over passing the Senate’s version of a massive, Trump-backed tax-cuts and spending bill.

GOP legislators are racing to soothe intraparty worries over the laundry list of measures, which would, among a host of reforms, extend Trump’s 2017 tax reductions and create new tax breaks while boosting spending on defense and border security.

Securing enough Republican support for the bill remains crucial, given the party’s narrow majorities in Congress and united Democratic opposition. But some conservative lawmakers have voiced fears that the bill would expand the nation’s already-ballooning debt pile and raised concerns over its proposed cuts to Medicaid, a federal program for low-income Americans.

Republican leaders are also under a time crunch. Trump has set a Fourth of July deadline for having the bill approved by Congress and on his desk to be signed into law.

U.S. stock futures point higher following the Senate’s passage of a behemoth fiscal bill that holds President Donald Trump’s signature legislative agenda. The measure now moves to the House of Representatives, with Republicans facing an impending deadline to bring the bill before Trump to be signed into law. On the economic calendar, private payrolls data could provide a fresh glimpse into the state of the American labor market.

1. Futures higher

U.S. stock futures edged higher on Wednesday, as investors assessed the U.S. Senate’s now-approved version of a massive tax-cuts and spending package and kept tabs on the outlook for interest rates and tariffs.

By 03:33 ET (07:33 GMT), the Dow futures contract had inched up by 127 points, or 0.3%, S&P 500 futures had advanced by 17 points, or 0.3%, and Nasdaq 100 futures had climbed by 56 points, or 0.2%.

The main indices were mixed in the previous session, with traders eyeing a more hawkish reading of U.S. hiring and a smaller-than-anticipated contraction in manufacturing sector activity.

But the major story revolved around the fate of Trump’s so-called “One Big Beautiful Bill,” which, after narrowly passing the Senate, now moves to the House of Representatives for final approval -- with a self-imposed July 4 deadline to have the legislation on Trump’s desk looming large.

2. House to take up Senate’s version of Trump-backed fiscal package

Still, it remains uncertain whether the Republican lawmakers currently trying to shepherd the bill through Congress will be able to meet that date.

The House is expected to take up the Senate’s updated text on Wednesday, although some pushback from more fiscally-conservative GOP legislators is predicted to emerge.

Throughout the drawn-out process of passing the bill, some Republicans have balked at its potential impact on the country’s finances. Nonpartisan observers have flagged that the measures, which include the extension of Trump’s 2017 tax cuts, new tax reductions, and increased spending on defense and border security, will end up expanding the federal debt pile by over $3 trillion.

Despite the projected uptick in U.S. obligations, Treasury markets have reacted in a relatively muted manner, “cushioned by hopes” that the Federal Reserve may decide to slash interest rates in the coming months, analysts at ING said in a note to clients.

3. ADP jobs data ahead

The trajectory of Fed policy will likely be front and center when the latest monthly gauge of private payrolls is released on Wednesday.

Economists expect the figure in the ADP National Employment Report to rise to 99,000 in June, up from 37,000 in the prior month.

Data on Tuesday showed that while job openings unexpectedly ticked up in May, hiring weakened, indicating a possible cooling in an otherwise resilient labor picture. Further insight into the health of the labor market is due to come on Thursday, when the all-important nonfarm payrolls report is scheduled to be unveiled.

Pushing for maximum employment, along with corralling inflationary pressures, has long been a key mandate for Fed policymakers. Labor market demand has shown signs of receding while price gains have recently been relatively benign, although central bank officials have largely backed a wait-and-see approach to further interest rate changes, citing uncertainty over the effect of sweeping U.S. tariffs on the wider economy.

4. Trump hints at India trade deal with tariff pause deadline looming

The levies have been a major focus for markets, especially with the expiration of a pause to Trump’s punishing "reciprocal" duties just days away.

Trump administration officials have been carrying out negotiations with a host of nations during the delay, yet the White House has displayed little progress in securing fresh agreements.

On Tuesday, Trump told reporters that he believed India was ready to ink a trade deal with the U.S. that would help American companies and lower the country’s tariffs. India faces an impending 26% levy rate on July 9, when Trump’s reciprocal tariff delay ends.

"Right now, India doesn’t accept anybody in. I think India is going to do that, if they do that, we’re going to have a deal for less, much less tariffs," he said.

However, Trump also hinted that he may not choose to extend the deadline -- and would simply send out letters telling individual nations their tariff rates.

5. Oil subdued

Crude prices were little moved Wednesday, as traders digested progress towards an Israel-Hamas ceasefire and a build in U.S. inventories ahead of an upcoming OPEC+ meeting.

At 03:32 ET, Brent futures inched up 0.1% to $67.16 a barrel and U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures were unchanged at $65.45 a barrel.

President Trump on Tuesday evening said Israel had agreed to the conditions needed to finalize a 60-day ceasefire with Hamas, while also urging the Palestinian group to accept the deal.

Data from the American Petroleum Institute showed on Tuesday that U.S. oil inventories grew 0.68 million barrels in the week to June 27, a build that followed five weeks of deep, outsized draws in U.S. oil stockpiles, and raised some questions over fuel demand in the travel-heavy summer season.

The official government inventory report is due later on Wednesday.

U.S. futures inch down following an upbeat session on Monday that saw global stocks touch a fresh intraday record, with traders eyeing a resumption in trade talks between the U.S. and Canada and a weakening dollar. U.S. President Donald Trump ratchets up his campaign against Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, sending the central bank head a scathing handwritten letter urging him to quickly bring down interest rates. Powell is scheduled to speak at a much-anticipated panel discussion with global central bank heads at the European Central Bank’s annual forum in Portugal. Elsewhere, the White House is reportedly narrowing the scope of its targeted trade deals as an impending expiration to a delay to Trump’s punishing "reciprocal" tariffs looms large.

1. Futures tick lower

U.S. stock futures pointed slightly lower on Tuesday, suggesting that recently bullish investors were taking some caution as they assessed headlines around trade and fiscal policy and prepared for the release of key labor market data later this week.

By 03:32 ET (07:32 GMT), the Dow futures contract had inched down by 30 points, or 0.1%, S&P 500 futures had slipped by 11 points, or 0.2%, and Nasdaq 100 futures had fallen by 56 points, or 0.3%.

The main averages on Wall Street advanced in the prior session, underpinned by hopes for renewed trade talks between the U.S. and Canada. However, sentiment was somewhat dented by worries that a massive tax-cuts and spending bill currently being debated in the U.S. Senate would expand the already massive $36.2 trillion federal debt pile.

“Notwithstanding some intra-day volatility based on errant headlines, there’s little acute anxiety around either the reconciliation bill or tariffs,” analysts at Vital Knowledge said in a note.

Financial markets are also keeping tabs on upcoming economic data this holiday-shortened trading week, particularly the June nonfarm payrolls report on Thursday. Today, the key data point for traders will be a tracker of activity in the U.S. manufacturing sector.

2. Trump steps up criticism of Fed’s Powell

President Trump stepped up his attacks on Fed Chair Jerome Powell on Monday, sending the central bank leader a note criticizing him for being "as usual, too late" on cutting interest rates.

In a handwritten letter that came with a list of policy rates from central banks around the world, Trump urged Powell to lower borrowing costs by "a lot," arguing that "hundreds of billions" of dollars are "being lost."

Trump added in a social media post displaying the letter that the U.S. should be paying "1% interest or better."

Following the Fed’s decision to leave rates at a target range of 4.25% to 4.5% after a two-day meeting last month, Powell has backed a wait-and-see attitude to future policy actions as a prudent approach during a time of uncertainty around the impact of Trump’s aggressive tariff agenda on the wider economy. Concerns have swirled around the potential inflationary effect of the levies, although price gains have stayed relatively muted in recent weeks.

Exasperated with a perceived lack of action compared to rate-cutting cycles being deployed by other global central banks, Trump has launched a barrage of verbal and written attacks at Powell and is reportedly mulling over naming a potential successor to Powell later this year. Such a move could create a so-called "shadow" Fed chair which may diminish Powell’s ability to sway policy decisions, analysts have suggested.

3. Uncertainty at Sintra

Powell will be in the spotlight again on Tuesday, when he is due to appear in a panel discussion at the European Central Bank’s annual forum in Sintra, Portugal.

ECB President Christine Lagarde, as well as the heads of central banks from Japan, Britain and South Korea, are set to join Powell for the discussion at 13:30 GMT.

Reports have predicted that the talk will partly focus on whether the role of the U.S. dollar as the world’s go-to currency for saving and investing is changing. The greenback has endured its worst start to a year since the 1970s, driven down in part by Trump’s more protectionist trade stance.

But "uncertainty" is seen as the likely buzzword at the event, especially as the direction of sweeping U.S. tariffs and the Trump-backed fiscal package remains unclear. In her opening remarks on Monday, Lagarde said that this lack of clarity should be an ongoing and major feature of the global economy.

4. U.S. narrows trade ambitions - FT

U.S. trade officials under Trump are pivoting to narrower trade agreements in a bid to secure quick wins ahead of a July 9 deadline, when steep reciprocal tariffs are set to return, the Financial Times reported on Tuesday, citing people familiar with the talks.

The administration is seeking “agreements in principle” on limited issues with select countries to avoid the reimposition of tariffs as high as 50%, the FT report stated.

These phased deals mark a retreat from Trump’s original pledge to strike 90 comprehensive trade agreements during a 90-day pause in tariff enforcement, which began on April 2.

While such agreements may spare countries from the harshest levies, a 10% baseline tariff would remain in place as negotiations on broader issues continue.

However, talks remain complicated, and alongside the narrower deal approach, the administration is still considering tariffs on key sectors, the FT reported.

5. Crude choppy

Crude prices were volatile after they touched a three-week low fueled by easing supply concerns and expectations of an OPEC+ production hike.

At 03:38 ET, Brent futures had slipped 0.4% to $66.47 a barrel. It earlier fell to its lowest level since June 11, shortly before the onset of the Israel-Iran war. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures dropped 0.5% to $64.81 a barrel.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies, known as OPEC+, is set to meet on July 6, and Reuters reported last week that the group will increase output by 411,000 barrels per day in August, following similar hikes in May, June, and July.

The increase would bring OPEC+’s total supply increase for the year to 1.78 million barrels per day, although the hike is still smaller than the total number of production cuts enacted by the producers’ group in the past two years.

Gold prices rose from a one-month low in Asian trade on Monday, supported by a weaker dollar, though safe-haven demand stayed muted amid easing Middle East tensions and optimism over potential U.S. trade deals.

Spot Gold rose 0.5% to $3,290.25 an ounce, while Gold Futures for August gained 0.4% to $3,300.0/oz by 02:00 ET (06:00 GMT). 

Bullion fell nearly 3% last week, marking its steepest weekly drop since early May. It was on track to end the month flat, as early gains from geopolitical tensions were erased by losses after the Israel-Iran ceasefire.

Gold supported by weak dollar; US trade deals in focus

A ceasefire between Israel and Iran brokered by U.S. President Donald Trump last week eased geopolitical risk in the Middle East and curbed the appeal of gold.

On the trade front, a U.S.–China deal signed last week in Geneva, which resolves rare-earth shipments and trims key trade friction, bolstered sentiment.

Meanwhile, a U.S.–U.K. trade agreement came into effect Monday, slashing car tariffs to 10% and fully eliminating aircraft parts duties.

However, the July 9 deadline looms for the potential reinstatement of duties on other trading partners, and for global steel and aluminum tariffs.

Gold prices were supported by a weaker dollar as markets were increasingly betting on at least one Federal Reserve rate cut by September.

The US US Dollar Index fell 0.2% in Asian trading hours, remaining near a three-year low.

Metal markets rise, Platinum set for 30% monthly jump

A  weaker dollar makes the commodity cheaper for foreign buyers, thus increasing its demand.

Platinum Futures jumped 1.9% to $1,377.00 after a recent pullback from a more than decade-high. The precious metal was set to climb more than 30% this month.

Silver Futures were largely muted at $36.045 per ounce.

Meanwhile, benchmark Copper Futures on the London Metal Exchange were unchanged at $9,888.95 a ton, while U.S. Copper Futures rose 0.7% to $5.132  a pound.

Gains in the red metal were capped as data showed China’s manufacturing sector contracted in June, highlighting ongoing weakness in external demand amid elevated U.S. trade tariffs on the world’s top copper importer.