Gold prices slipped on Thursday, snapping a four-session winning streak as investors reacted to renewed escalation signals from U.S. President Donald Trump on the Iran conflict.

Spot gold was last down 2.6% at $4,637.25 per ounce by 03:41 ET (07:41 GMT), after climbing as high as $4,800.58/oz earlier in the session.

U.S. Gold Futures declined 3.1% to $4,664.15/oz.

Gold prices gained in the last four sessions amid some signs of easing geopolitical tensions and declining oil prices.

Among other precious metals, silver prices plunged 5.1% to $71.26 per ounce, while platinum fell 3.3% to $1,902.60/oz.

Trump vows to hit Iran ’extremely hard’ over next 2-3 weeks

Sentiment shifted after Trump said in a televised address that the U.S. would ramp up military operations against Iran over the next “two to three weeks,” reiterating Washington’s stance on preventing Tehran from obtaining nuclear weapons.

"We’re going to hit them extremely hard over the next two to three weeks. We’re going to bring them back to the Stone Ages where they belong," Trump said.

The remarks marked a reversal from earlier comments this week, when Trump said the U.S. could leave Iran within a similar timeframe, even without a formal agreement.

Markets have remained highly sensitive to shifting rhetoric around the conflict, as investors reassess geopolitical risks.

Oil rebounds sharply, US dollar jumps

Oil prices rebounded sharply after President Trump’s speech, reinforcing concerns about inflationary pressures, which could keep interest rates elevated and limit the appeal of non-yielding assets such as gold.

The US Dollar Index rose 0.5% after two sessions of losses, making gold costlier for holders of other currencies.

Investors are also awaiting U.S. jobs data on Friday for cues on the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook, which remains a key driver for bullion.

Benchmark Copper Futures on the London Metal Exchange fell 1.4% to $12,286.33 a ton, while U.S.Copper Futures lost 1.3% to $5.54 a pound.

Most Asian currencies steadied on Wednesday after posting strong gains overnight, while the U.S. dollar weakened as risk sentiment improved following signs of a potential de-escalation in the Middle East conflict.

The US Dollar Index edged 0.1% lower in Asian trading after settling 0.6% lower overnight.

US Dollar Index Futures also traded down 0.1% as of 23:52 ET (03:52 GMT).

Trump says Iran war could end soon; Hormuz risks remain

Investors reacted to comments from U.S. President Donald Trump that Washington could end its military campaign against Iran within “two to three weeks,” raising hopes of a near-term resolution.

The improved sentiment stoked a rally in risk assets, with Asian stock markets surging on Wednesday.

However, investors were cautious as a Wall Street Journal report said that Trump was willing to end the U.S. military campaign even if the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed, underscoring persistent risks to global trade and energy supply.

Prospects for a durable peace deal between the United States and Iran remain uncertain despite recent diplomatic signals, analysts at MUFG said.

They noted key sticking points, including Iran’s internal power structure, the strategic leverage of the Strait of Hormuz, and broader regional tensions, warning that even a U.S. withdrawal could leave an “extremely unstable equilibrium.”

The Japanese yen's USD/JPY pair was largely muted after slipping 0.6% in the previous session.

The South Korean won's USDKRW pair edged up 0.2% on Wednesday, after falling 0.7% overnight.

The Indian rupee's USD/INR pair rose 0.2% to 93.68 rupees, after dropping 1% on Tuesday. The currency hit a record low of 95.22 rupees in the previous session.

China factory activity expands, but input costs surge

Economic data from China also underscored underlying pressures in the region.

The RatingDog Manufacturing PMI showed factory activity expanded for a fourth straight month in March, but growth slowed and missed expectations, highlighting a moderation in momentum.

The survey pointed to sharply rising input costs, driven in part by elevated oil prices linked to the Middle East conflict, with manufacturers facing the fastest increase in input prices since March 2022.

The Chinese yuan's onshore pair USD/CNY pair was largely muted while the offshore pair USD/CNH ticked down 0.2%.

Elsewhere, the Singapore dollar's USD/SGD pair traded flat. 

The Australian dollar's AUD/USD rose 0.2% on Wednesday.

Investors are now looking ahead to upcoming U.S. economic data, including the nonfarm payrolls report later this week, for further direction on monetary policy and currency markets.

Goldman Sachs is maintaining its forecast for gold to reach $5,400 per troy ounce by the end of 2026, driven by expected Federal Reserve rate cuts, a normalization in speculative positioning, and continued central bank buying.

The bank’s analysts Lina Thomas and Daan Struyven are holding that view even as bullion has pulled back roughly 15% to around $4,580 since the onset of the Middle East conflict. They attribute the selloff to a combination of factors, chiefly the nature of the conflict itself.

The energy supply disruption triggered by the war has stoked inflation fears and led markets to price out Fed rate cuts for this year entirely. Under that scenario, Goldman estimates gold’s current fair value at around $4,550 per troy ounce, assuming pre-conflict macro policy hedges remain in place.

Record levels of call option demand earlier this year also left gold exposed. As the Wall Street bank had flagged last month, that positioning meant even a mild equity market correction could produce an outsized pullback in gold prices, pointing to $4,700 as the floor of such a move.

With the selloff now having run its course, net speculative positioning on Comex has fallen to the 39th percentile and the call option overhang has been largely unwound — leaving the market in "cleaner" shape and, in analysts’ view, at a "more attractive entry point."

The analysts pushed back on the notion that gold has failed in its role as a safe-haven or inflation hedge. Gold, they argue, behaves differently depending on the type of inflationary shock.

Supply-driven stagflation, like the current episode, historically tends to favor commodities over gold, while the metal performs best when the threat stems from institutional credibility risks, such as doubts about a central bank’s ability to contain inflation.

"Like in 2022, gold typically underperforms initially in supply disruption episodes," the analysts wrote. "Supply‑driven inflation raises the risk of tighter monetary policy, higher yields increase the opportunity cost of holding gold and weigh on ETF demand, and equity market drawdowns trigger margin‑related liquidations."

On the matter of central bank selling, Thomas and Struyven dismissed concerns that Gulf states would follow Turkey — which reportedly sold around 52 tonnes — in liquidating reserves. Gulf nations hold far smaller gold shares in their reserves and typically manage their currencies through dollar-pegged systems, making U.S. Treasury sales more likely than gold disposals.

Looking ahead, Goldman’s base case rests on three drivers: a normalization of speculative positioning, which the bank estimates is worth around $195 per troy ounce; 50 basis points of Fed cuts expected by its economists, adding roughly $120; and a re-acceleration of central bank buying to around 60 tonnes per month, contributing an estimated $535.

Downside risks remain, however. A prolonged Hormuz disruption and further equity market weakness could push gold as low as $3,800 in a severe liquidation scenario, the analysts warned.

On the flip side, if geopolitical tensions, including developments in Greenland and Venezuela, were to accelerate diversification away from Western assets, prices could climb toward $5,700 or even $6,100.

"Gold allocations in Western private portfolios remain very low," the team observed, with ETF holdings representing roughly 0.2% of U.S. private sector portfolios, leaving substantial room for upside should sentiment shift.

Futures linked to the main U.S. averages ticked higher on Monday, while oil continued to climb, as investors assessed ongoing fighting in the Middle East that has entered a second month.

By 06:49 ET (10:49 GMT), the Dow futures contract had added 187 points, or 0.4%, S&P 500 futures had risen by 26 points, or 0.4%, and Nasdaq 100 futures had jumped by 74 points, or 0.3%.

The main averages on Wall Street sank at the end of last week, even after President Donald Trump’s decision to delay until April 6 a deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz or face U.S. attacks on domestic power facilities.

"[M]arkets remain very much on edge about the Middle East, and the consensus view is still that the conflict is set to escalate," analysts at Vital Knowledge said in a note to clients.

A sharp spike in oil since the outbreak of the conflict in late February has sparked worries over renewed inflationary pressures in countries around the world, which could in turn spur on central bank interest rate hikes. Government bond yields have risen against this backdrop, including U.S. Treasuries, weighing on stocks.

Traders are no longer pricing in any rate easing by the Federal Reserve this year, versus expectations for two drawdowns prior to the war, according to CME’s FedWatch Tool. Key labor market and business activity data is due out this holiday-shortened week, and Fed Chair Jerome Powell is set to speak later in the day.

Brent hovers above $115

With the conflict in the Middle East raging, the Wall Street Journal has reported that President Donald Trump is considering a potentially complex and risky military operation to remove almost 1,000 pounds of uranium from Iran.

Meanwhile, troops from the U.S. 31st Marine Expeditionary Unit are said to have arrived in the Middle East, in a move reportedly aimed at giving Trump more options as he mulls over the next phase of the war. A Washington Post report said the Pentagon was preparing for weeks of ground operations in Iran.

Tehran has vowed to destroy any U.S. forces that attempt to stage a ground incursion into the country.

At least 12 U.S. troops were injured in an Iranian attacks on an air base in Saudi Arabia over the weekend. Iran-aligned Houthi rebels in Yemen joined the fray for the first time as well, firing attacks at Israel and exacerbating already heightened fears around disruptions to key energy supplies.

Should the Houthis target the Bab al-Mandab Strait in particular, the Vital Knowledge analysts flagged that a global shipping crisis already caused by the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz off the southern coast of Iran would be "dramatically amplif[ied]." The Bab al-Mandab Strait is a key choke point for vessel traffic which connects the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden and the Indian Ocean.

Brent crude futures expiring in May jumped by 2.6% to $115.53 a barrel by 06:55 ET.

Trump says Iran negotiations going "well"

Trump suggested that direct negotiations with Iran were ongoing and that a deal with Tehran could be close.

Speaking to reporters aboard Air Force One, Trump said negotiations were going “extremely well,” and that a deal with Iran was possible, touting “regime change” in Tehran after U.S. strikes killed several top Iranian officials in the past month.

“I think we’ll make a deal with them, but it’s possible we won’t,” the president said. Responding to a reporter’s question, Trump said “I do see a deal with Iran, could be soon,” although he did not offer a specific timeline.

Iran has largely denied that direct talks with Washington had taken place since the onset of the war, and has called for a cessation in hostilities before any negotiations can take place.

Yet, as has been the case for much of the conflict, Trump’s statements came with caveats. Along with the WSJ report of a potential U.S. uranium extraction plan, the president told the Financial Times that he wants to take Iran’s oil and could seize Kharg Island, a major export hub for Tehran.

"Maybe we take Kharg Island, maybe we don’t. We have a lot of options," Trump told the FT.

Gold prices rose more than 2% in Asian trading on Friday, supported by a slightly softer U.S. dollar and easing geopolitical tensions after Donald Trump signaled progress in talks with Iran.

Spot gold was last up 2.1% at $4,467.32 per ounce by 02:41 ET (06:41 GMT), while U.S. Gold Futures rose 1.1% to $4,457.6/oz.

Gold declined nearly 3% in the previous session, and was set to fall 0.5% for the week.

Trump vows to pause Iran energy attacks

President Trump said on Thursday he would pause attacks on Iran’s energy infrastructure for 10 days at Tehran’s request and added that negotiations were “going very well.”

The temporary halt in hostilities reduced immediate safe-haven demand but also weighed on the dollar, lending support to bullion, which typically moves inversely to the greenback.

The US Dollar Index edged down 0.1% after three days of gains.

Gold markets have been highly volatile in recent weeks, as the ongoing Middle East conflict disrupted traditional safe-haven dynamics.

A sharp spike in oil prices earlier this month, triggered by supply disruptions from the Iran conflict, has fueled concerns over global inflation.

Higher energy costs could keep inflation elevated and reinforce expectations that central banks will maintain interest rates at higher levels for longer.

Silver, platinum prices jump

Oil prices ticked lower on Friday and were set for a weekly loss amid de-escalation talks.

However, lingering uncertainty over the conflict’s trajectory and conflicting signals around efforts to end the war kept investors on edge.

Among other precious metals, silver prices climbed 2.6% to $68.75 per ounce, while platinum jumped 3.5% to $1,901.60/oz.

Benchmark Copper Futures on the London Metal Exchange rose 1% to $12,254.95 a ton, while U.S.Copper Futures gained 1.1% to $5.53 a pound.

The U.S. dollar steadied against most major currencies on Thursday, pausing after strong gains this month, as dealers awaited clarity on what would happen next in the Iran war and hence the direction of oil prices, inflation and central bank policy.

Iran’s foreign minister said the country was reviewing a U.S. proposal to end the war but did not intend to hold talks to end the widening Middle East conflict, leaving markets struggling for direction. 

The dollar has been the outperformer in currency markets since the war began at the end of February, as the U.S. is a net energy exporter unlike Europe, Japan and Britain. On Thursday it was steady against most major peers.

The euro was flat at $1.1557. It has fallen from above $1.80 in late February, but is off its mid-month lows close to $1.40.

Sterling was slightly softer at $1.3349. While it has fallen less against the dollar than the euro, the monthly directional pattern of a sharp decline and some rebound has been similar. The dollar was flat against the Japanese yen at 159.48, but close to last week’s near two-year top.

SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT IN SENTIMENT, ANALYST SAYS

ING currency analyst Francesco Pesole said in a note to clients that market sentiment had slightly improved after "some constructive headlines on the Middle East conflict".

"Still, the FX market isn’t ready to add another leg of de-escalation trade just yet. After all, oil prices still above $100 a barrel argue against aggressive dollar selling."

The implications of the war for currency markets are largely driven by oil and gas prices.

After the closure of the Strait of Hormuz caused energy prices to spike, traders have questioned previous inflation expectations and grown more confident that the U.S. Federal Reserve will keep policy settings on hold throughout the year.

Market pricing sees around a 40% chance the Fed will raise rates by its December meeting.

The situation is different in Europe. Markets are close to fully pricing three European Central Bank rate hikes this year, and expect at least two, maybe three, from the Bank of England.

But remarks from policymakers are being monitored for signs they may prioritise keeping rates lower to support growth rather than hiking them to curb inflation.

The problem of higher energy costs for central banks is that they both hit growth and drive inflation.

European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde on Wednesday said the ECB would have to respond in a forceful or persistent way if inflation looked set to sit well above its 2% target for an extended period, but said even a more modest overshoot could call for a "measured" rate move.

Three BoE rate setters are also due to speak on Thursday.

Against the Chinese yuan, the U.S. dollar was flat at 6.908 yuan in offshore trading after Trump said he will meet Chinese President Xi Jinping on May 14 and 15 following a delay due to the Iran war. 

The dollar was also steady against the Swiss franc at 0.7920 francs.

Oil prices fell in Asian trading on Wednesday, although Brent crude remained above $100 a barrel, as Middle East strikes continued despite talks of de-escalation.

As of 21:18 ET (01:18 GMT), Brent Oil Futures expiring in May fell 3.8% to $100.51 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures declined 3.1% to $89.50 per barrel.

Brent oil had slipped to as low as $97.15/barrel earlier in the day.

The decline followed reports that the United States had sent Iran a 15-point plan aimed at ending the war in the region, raising hopes for a ceasefire and reduced risks to key oil shipping routes, including the Strait of Hormuz.

U.S. President Donald Trump said Washington was “in negotiations right now” with Iran, adding that Tehran was “talking sense” and appeared eager to strike a peace deal.

However, media reports said Israel struck Iran’s capital, Tehran, on Wednesday, even as the U.S. signalled potential diplomatic progress.

Trump had earlier described talks with Iran as “productive” on Monday, but Iranian officials denied that any negotiations had taken place.

Oil markets had rallied sharply in recent sessions on fears that escalating tensions could disrupt supplies from the Middle East, a key producing region. Concerns had centred on the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for global crude flows.

Wednesday’s sharp selloff reflected a rapid unwinding of the geopolitical risk premium, as traders reacted to signs that tensions could ease.

Analysts said that while the prospect of de-escalation pressured prices, conflicting signals from Washington and Tehran were likely to keep markets volatile.

Markets remain tightly anchored to oil as investors navigate the fallout from the Iran conflict, with Goldman Sachs strategist Christian Mueller-Glissmann saying crude is the key driver across asset classes.

Speaking on Bloomberg TV, he said oil is “the lead asset” and that “all markets are correlated to oil,” as investors look for prices to stabilize after a period of sharp moves. He described the current phase of the conflict as one of “high velocity,” with elevated risk and markets still primarily treating the shock as inflation-driven rather than growth-destructive.

Daan Struyven, who leads Goldman research on oil markets, raised his oil price forecasts for the second time in under two weeks, citing prolonged disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz and rising structural supply risks. The investment bank now assumes flows through the key shipping route will remain at just 5% of normal levels for six weeks, followed by a gradual one-month recovery, a scenario expected to materially tighten global supply.

In the near term, he expects prices to keep trending higher amid uncertainty, noting a “growing risk premium” will be needed to curb demand and guard against shortages.

Goldman now sees XBR/USD averaging $110 in March-April, up from $98 previously and significantly above 2025 levels. The bank also lifted its 2026 forecasts, with Brent seen at $85 and WTI/USD at $79, alongside higher long-dated price assumptions driven by deeper inventory drawdowns and a reassessment of effective spare capacity.

Difficult spot for central bankers

“You haven't seen as much damage on the growth side,” Mueller-Glissmann said, though he expects that balance to shift, with inflation expected to run “a bit higher” and growth “a bit lower” through the rest of the year.

Central banks face a difficult backdrop, he added, noting policymakers are reacting more aggressively after being late to respond in 2022. “It’s a very tough spot,” he said, as officials attempt to contain inflation risks stemming from higher energy prices.

On currencies and safe havens, Mueller-Glissmann said the dollar’s role is less clear this time, despite recent strength.

“We are still leaning more towards fading the dollar strength eventually,” he said, favoring the Swiss franc and yen instead.

Why gold is falling?

Gold has come under pressure largely because, according to Mueller-Glissmann, its role as a hedge against the dollar has weakened in the current environment. When the dollar strengthens, investors are typically less compelled to hold gold as a diversifier, reducing demand at the margin. That dynamic has been a key driver of the recent pullback, alongside tighter financial conditions and a more aggressive policy backdrop, the strategist explained.

Positioning has also played a meaningful role, he said. Gold entered the year with elevated exposure, initially driven by central bank buying and later reinforced by investor inflows. As market volatility picked up, part of that positioning has started to unwind, in some cases retail investors selling gold to raise liquidity. The fact that gold had previously performed well as a safe haven made it a natural source of funds during risk-off moves.

Finally, the speed of the recent decline suggests that derivatives have amplified the move, with options likely contributing to sharper, more mechanical selling, according to Mueller-Glissmann.

Despite this, the pullback in gold prices is not necessarily a shift in the longer-term thesis, he said.

"It does tell me, it's probably an opportunity for longer term investors," the strategist concluded.

Most Asian currencies weakened on Monday, while the dollar steadied as markets feared an escalation in the U.S.-Israel war on Iran, especially after President Donald Trump issued an ultimatum to Tehran. 

Regional markets also remained on edge as oil prices rose, fueling concerns over energy-driven inflation and hawkish central banks in the developed world. 

The dollar index and dollar index futures both steadied in Asian trade after losing some ground last week. 

Indian rupee hits record low on oil shock jitters 

The Indian rupee was among the worst performers on Monday, with the USD/INR pair rising 0.3% and crossing 94 rupees for the first time ever.

India is seen as among the more vulnerable countries to disruptions in oil and gas supplies, with rising oil prices expected to weigh heavily on the rupee. 

Local media reports also pointed to a brewing gas shortage in the country. India imports roughly 80% of its oil and gas consumption, with a bulk of its shipments coming from the Middle East. 

Still, deeper declines in the rupee have been deterred by continued intervention by the Reserve Bank of India in foreign exchange markets. 

South Korean won falls, new BOK governor seen as hawkish 

The South Korea won’s USD/KRW pair rose 0.2%, but traded below a 17-year high hit earlier in the session.

The won took some support from bets that new Bank of Korea Governor Shin Hyun-song was a hawkish pick for the role, and that interest rates could rise later this year.

Shin– who is most famous for predicting the 2008 financial crisis– said he will seek a more “balanced” policy approach.

But analysts viewed past statements from Shin as leaning hawkish, given that he has spoken against overlending, excessive liquidity, and inflation. 

ING analysts said that the BOK under Shin could hike interest rates by as soon as July, especially as the Iran crisis presents more inflationary pressures.

Asia FX weakens with Iran escalation in focus

Broader Asian currencies largely weakened, with the Japanese yen’s USD/JPY pair rising 0.1%, while the Chinese yuan’s USD/CNY pair added nearly 0.4%.

The Singapore dollar’s USD/SGD pair rose 0.1%, while the Australian dollar’s AUD/USD pair slid 0.6%. 

Markets remained on edge over an escalation in the Iran war, especially after Trump said Tehran had 48 hours to reopen the Strait of Hormuz or face U.S. strikes on key energy infrastructure.

Tehran responded by threatening to attack key energy and water infrastructure across the Middle East, and that it would also completely shut the Strait. 

Reports showed the conflict heading towards little de-escalation after it entered its fourth consecutive week, with hostilities continuing across the Middle East.

Gold prices held on to modest gains in European trading on Friday, but were still nursing deep weekly losses, as the U.S.-Israel war on Iran raised inflation expectations and dented bets on interest rate cuts. 

The yellow metal had tumbled on Thursday after several major central banks flagged caution over the inflationary effects of the Iran war. This in turn fueled expectations for no interest rate cuts in the near-term – a scenario that bodes poorly for precious metals. 

Spot gold rose 0.1% to $4,657.00 an ounce by 06:45 ET (10:45 GMT), while gold futures advanced 1.1% to $4,658.41/oz.

Bullion took some relief from a drop in the dollar, which was headed for its first weekly loss in three. The greenback was outpaced by other major developed world currencies after several central banks flagged plans for interest rate hikes in the face of rising energy prices. 

Gold heads for deep weekly losses

Spot gold was trading down roughly 8% this week – its worst weekly drop since early-2020. Despite being widely regarded as a safe haven asset, gold has largely underperformed since the onset of the Iran war in late-February. 

Safe haven flows into gold were vastly overshadowed by a spike in the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields, as markets fretted over the inflationary effects of the conflict.

Oil prices shot up to near four-year highs this week, fueled in large part by strikes on Middle Eastern energy infrastructure. The spike in oil saw a swathe of major global central banks flag caution over potential energy-driven inflation.

The Reserve Bank of Australia hiked interest rates, while the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Swiss National Bank and Bank of Japan all left rates steady and warned of few changes in the coming months.

“Growing concerns over the global economic fallout from the conflict are weighing on risk appetite. The spike in oil prices has added to inflation concerns, reducing the likelihood of a near-term U.S. rate cut and creating headwinds for both industrial and precious metals,” analysts at ING said in a note.