Oil prices jumped in European trade on Tuesday, with market volatility appearing to subside as traders digested the U.S. capture of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro. 

Prices settled higher after a whipsaw session on Monday, as traders priced in a greater risk premium for oil from heightened geopolitical uncertainty. 

But markets struggled to gauge just what the implications of a U.S. takeover of Venezuela’s oil industry would entail for the sector. 

A mix of profit-taking and strength in the dollar pressured oil prices on Tuesday. Crude markets were also nursing their worst annual decline in five years in 2025, amid persistent concerns over a supply glut in 2026. 

Brent oil futures for March rose 0.2% to $61.89 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate crude futures also edged up 0.2% to $58.42 a barrel by 04:58 ET (09:58 GMT). 

Venezuela names Delcy Rodriguez as interim president

Maduro’s vice president, Delcy Rodriguez, was sworn in as interim president on Monday. While she did offer words of support for Maduro, it was unclear whether she planned to challenge the U.S. incursion. 

Reports on Monday showed U.S. intelligence viewed Rodriguez as best positioned to lead a temporary government. 

Maduro on Monday pleaded not guilty to U.S. charges of narcotics distribution. 

Appearing in a New York court just days after his capture in Caracas by U.S. forces, Maduro said he was innocent and that he was still the president of Venezuela. 

Maduro’s capture, which U.S. President Donald Trump said was carried out without Congress approval, shocked global markets this week. Trump signaled that the U.S. will temporarily take control of Venezuela and open up the country’s oil industry, inviting major American oil companies to invest in the country. 

Venezuela leadership transition key to oil outlook 

Analysts broadly opined that an opening up of Venezuela’s oil industry, by major U.S. producers, was likely to increase global supplies and weigh on crude prices.

But such a scenario hinges on there being a peaceful transition in Venezuelan leadership, which would then allow for the lifting of U.S. sanctions against the country. Such a move was likely to take time, given the high amount of investment needed to overhaul the country’s aging oil infrastructure.

ANZ analysts said a peaceful transition appeared unlikely, and that they expect a period of heightened political instability in Venezuela.

“The US action in Venezuela is likely to see the risk of supply disruptions remain elevated in the short term,” ANZ analysts said in a note. 

Political instability is likely to deter international companies from investing in the country, with Trump also having provided no clear plans on how the U.S. intends to “run” the Latin American nation. 

This in turn could lead to few immediate changes in oil supplies from Venezuela, with U.S. sanctions on the country to remain in place for the time being.