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Five things to watch in markets in the week ahead
2026-01-19 19:35:26

Investors gear up for a week shortened by the closure of stock markets on Wall Street for Martin Luther King Jr. Day on Monday. But it will likely get busier, with President Donald Trump’s latest tariff salvo and two major Supreme Court cases in the spotlight, as well as earnings from big-name companies like Netflix and Intel. Trump’s proposal to address housing affordability could also be fleshed out, as upcoming midterm elections in November loom.


1. EU prepares response to Trump’s Greenland tariffs


European leaders are set to discuss their response to Trump’s tariffs later this week, with reports suggesting that EU officials are even mulling over instituting harsh retaliatory measures should the levies be put into place.


On Saturday, Trump said he would place 10% tariffs on eight EU members -- Denmark, Sweden, France, Germany, the Netherlands, Finland, Norway and the United Kingdom -- until the U.S. can buy Greenland. Should the U.S. not succeed in buying the massive semi-autonomous Danish territory, Trump added that the levies would increase to 25% in June.


Trump has argued that the purchase over Greenland is necessary for national security, although European states have described the move as blackmail.


Ahead of an emergency summit scheduled for Thursday in Brussels, EU countries are reportedly preparing to discuss a range of responses, such as a package of tariffs 93 billion euros of U.S. imports. Another is the so-called “Anti-Coercion Tool,” which could limit the U.S.’s access to investment, banking activity and trade in services.


Against this backdrop, analysts suggested that uncertainty around Trump’s trade policies -- a common theme throughout 2025 -- may intensify.


“If the past year has shown anything, it is that the macroeconomic effects of tariffs are both uncertain and non-linear,” said Neil Shearing, Group Chief Economist at Capital Economics, in a note.


Shearing predicted that the economic impact of the tariffs would be “modest,” shaving “a few tenths of a percentage point” off of growth in the affected economies and adding a similar amount to U.S. inflation.


But Shearing warned that the political ramifications would be “far greater,” adding that any U.S. attempts to seize Greenland either by force or coercion would inflict “potentially irreparable damage” to the NATO alliance.


2. Supreme Court cases in focus


Notably, Trump has lobbed this new tariff volley at a time when the U.S. Supreme Court is anticipated to deliver a ruling on the legality of his sweeping levies.


Markets widely expect the high court will strike down Trump’s use of an international emergency economic powers law instituted in the 1970s to impose the tariffs, with the betting website Polymarket showing only a 31% that the justices will side in his favor.


Although Trump’s aides have suggested that they will explore other avenues to institute the tariffs, analysts have flagged that even more uncertainty would cloud the fate of levies, including those Trump has just threatened to roll out over Greenland.


Meanwhile, the Supreme Court is also due on Wednesday to listen to arguments in Trump’s push to fire Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook.


Cook sued Trump in August after he attempted to oust her from the role over claims of mortgage fraud -- an action that many observers interpreted as part of an effort by the president undermine the independence of the Fed.


“[The Supreme Court] has been a relative friend of the Fed in terms of defending it from White House interference, and investors are hoping that remains the case during the Cook hearing,” analysts at Vital Knowledge said.


3. Netflix earnings ahead


On the earnings calendar, Netflix is due to report its latest quarterly results after the closing bell on Wall Street on Tuesday.


According to Bloomberg consensus estimates, the streaming video giant is seen posting earnings per share of $0.55 on revenue of $11.96 billion.


But the numbers will likely take a back seat to any discussion around Netflix’s drive to purchase Hollywood stalwart Warner Bros. Discovery, a bid that has been rivalled by one from Paramount Skydance. The battle for Warner Bros is anticipated to drag on for months, and possibly become mired in regulatory scrutiny in both the U.S. and Europe.


Netflix has targeted Warner Bros, whose holdings include the HBO Max streaming unit and popular franchises like “Harry Potter” and “Friends”, to help boost revenues. Despite being bolstered by the success of series like “Stranger Things” and a foray into live sports programming, Netflix faces pressure to show returns from expensive bets on advertising and video games.


4. Intel to report


Elsewhere, Intel is slated to unveil its results following the close of the U.S. markets on Thursday.


Under CEO Lip-Bu Tan, the California-based chipmaker has been push to reduce costs and shore up its finances during a time when it is grappling with intensifying competition in the PC and server central processing unit markets.


Intel’s drive to break into the artificial intelligence chip market has also failed to produce results.


But the company was given a major lifeline last year when AI-darling Nvidia, tech investment giant SoftBank and even the U.S. government stepped in with significant investments. Nvidia, in particular, bought $5 billion in Intel shares in December.


Earlier this month, Intel also announced its new AI chip for laptops, seeking to assuage investor concerns around products made using the firm’s next-generation manufacturing process.


5. More details on Trump’s housing plan expected


The Trump administration is expected to provide more details around its plans to make housing more affordable, as officials look to address one of the central issues for voters heading into key midterm elections later this year.


Housing costs have been especially on the minds of many Americans who have put off buying property due to elevated mortgage rates and high home prices.


Last week, White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett said the administration is planning to let investors use some of their retirement funds to place a down payment on a house. Hassett added that Trump “will put the final plan out” during a trip to the World Economic Forum’s annual meeting in Davos this week.


Trump has outlined a range of measures aimed at bringing down costs, including barring institutional investors from buying single-family homes, ordering mortgage titans Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to purchase $200 billion in mortgage bonds, and a cap on credit-card interest rates.