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Top five things to watch in markets in the week ahead
2026-02-09 23:23:10

Much-anticipated jobs and inflation data are likely to be the marquee events of the trading week. A raft of fresh tech sector results will be in the limelight as well following recent volatility in software stocks. Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s big election bet appears to have been successful, while doubt surrounds U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s future in the role.


1. U.S. jobs data in focus


Highlighting this week’s economic calendar will be the release of postponed official employment figures for January.


The closely-watched jobs report, which was delayed by a short-lived three-day federal government shutdown which came to an end last Tuesday, is anticipated to show that the U.S. economy added 70,000 roles in January, down from 50,000 in the prior month. The data is due out on Wednesday.


Economists will be on the hunt for any indications that the U.S. labor picture is "stabilizing," a characterization recently used by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. The Fed slashed interest rates multiple times in 2025 in a bid to provide support to a slowing labor market weighed down by widespread, tariff-fueled economic uncertainty.


Data last week found that the amount of Americans filing for first-time unemployment benefits rose by more than expected, largely because of fierce winter storms. Job openings in December also slipped to a five-year low, although much of the decline was especially prevalent in the professional and business services sector -- a fact which some observers argued could be a sign of the pressure artificial intelligence is placing on some office workers.


2. Inflation data looms large


Figures tracking U.S. inflation, set to be published on Friday, are also set to headline the economic docket.


The Labor Department’s headline consumer price index for the twelve months to January is projected to slow to 2.5%, decelerating from 2.7% in December. Month-over-month, the number is seen equaling the December pace of 0.3%.


Along with job growth, inflation is a key a pillar of the Fed’s dual mandate, meaning that both of the numbers could factor heavily into how the U.S. central bank approaches borrowing costs in 2026.


Last month, policymakers left rates unchanged, pointing to the potentially steadying labor market as well as inflation that remains muted, albeit above the Fed’s 2% target range.


The upcoming data trove comes as markets have been volatile in recent days, fueled in part by worries around the possible impact AI may have on the software industry. Follow a steep selloff last week, stocks on Wall Street rebounded on Friday.


In a note, analysts at Capital Economics said they "suspect U.S. economic data this week might help investors’ nerves recover further[.]"


3. More tech earnings ahead


Hovering in the background will also be a deluge of corporate earnings, particularly from tech industry players.


Key updates from names like Onsemi, Datadog, Spotify, Cisco Systems, and Applied Materials are due to be released, possibly offering a fresh look into an industry which has been knocked by the emergence of powerful new AI tools.


The unveiling of a plugin from AI startup Anthropic’s workplace assistance focused on legal and administrative tasks triggered a sharp dive in software stocks last week, as investors fretted over whether the tool could dent demand for the sector’s services.


As a result, commentary from tech executives on the outlook for AI could be in focus for analysts.


"[I]nvestors had a lot to think about following the extreme volatility from the last several sessions, including the huge rebound on Friday, which raises the question of whether the swoon (especially in tech) is over?" analysts at Vital Knowledge said in a note.


"We think the recent market swings are simply the most visible manifestations of large structural changes that have been underway beneath the surface for months, specifically in tech and AI[.]"


4. Japan PM’s big win


Beyond the U.S., Asian markets advanced on Monday in the wake of a major win for Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi in a snap election over the weekend.


Takaichi had bet big on the vote, which was coming a mere 110 days after she became Japan’s first-ever female prime minister. But the gamble has appeared to pay off, with reports saying that Takaichi’s Liberal Democratic Party garnered such sweeping support that it secured a rare supermajority in the lower house of Japan’s parliament.


The result seems to clear the path for Takaichi to pursue her proposed spending bumps and tax reductions against a political backdrop that some observers have described as stable.


"Takaichi’s decision to leverage her popularity for her party turned out to be successful. The landslide victory will reinforce her responsible but expansionary fiscal spending and a more Japan-focused foreign policy. Risk-on sentiment will dominate the market for now," said Min Joo Kang, Senior Economist at ING, in a note.


5. U.K.’s Starmer under fire


From one leader fortifying power to another facing significant pressure.


Markets will be eyeing developments in the United Kingdom, where Prime Minister Keir Starmer is under fire for one of his government’s most prominent ambassador’s ties to Jeffrey Epstein.


On Sunday, Starmer’s chief of staff, Morgan McSweeney, stepped down, assuming responsibility for Starmer’s naming of Peter Mandelson as the U.K.’s ambassador to the U.S. Files released by the U.S. Justice Department showed that Mandelson had given government documents to Epstein, while Mandelson and his now husband received payments from the late American sex offender.


Should Starmer or U.K. Chancellor Rachel Reeves be replaced, "[t]he most likely longer-lasting influence is a loosening in fiscal policy that leads to higher gilt yields than otherwise and a weaker pound than otherwise," said Ruth Gregory, Deputy Chief U.K. Economist at Capital Economics, in a note.