By Ankur Banerjee

SINGAPORE (Reuters) - The dollar hung around five-week lows on Tuesday as comments from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell bolstered the case for a rate cut in September, while cryptocurrenices gained on rising odds of former President Donald Trump getting reelected.

Powell said on Monday the three U.S. inflation readings over the second quarter of this year "add somewhat to confidence" that the pace of price increases is returning to the Fed's target in a sustainable fashion.

"We've had three better readings, and if you average them, that's a pretty good place," Powell said at an event at the Economic Club of Washington.

The comments, likely Powell's last until his press conference following the Fed's July 30-31 meeting, shifted rate cut expectations. Markets are now anticipating 68 basis points of easing this year, with a rate cut in September fully priced in, CME FedWatch tool showed.

The euro was a shade lower at $1.0893, while sterling last fetched $1.2967. The dollar index, which measures the U.S. unit versus six peers, was at 104.3, not far from the one month low of 104 it touched on Monday.

"Despite dovish inclinations, Powell remained in a data-dependent mode which is warranted after the Fed has burnt its fingers with inflation running back higher in Q1 after a dovish pivot at the end of 2023," said Charu Chanana, head of currency strategy at Saxo.

"Markets may need to wait longer for the confirmation of their September rate cut hopes, and growth and labour data will be on the radar such as retail sales today."

U.S. retail sales for June due later in the day are expected to show a decline of 0.3% on a month on month basis.

Meanwhile, the yen was weaker in early trading after touching a one-month high against the dollar at 157.165 per dollar on Monday. It was last at 158.54, with traders wary of further intervention from the Japanese authorities.

Traders suspect Tokyo intervened in the market in another effort to lift the Japanese currency last week after the cooler-than-expected U.S. inflation report. Data from Bank of Japan indicates that authorities may have spent up to 3.57 trillion yen to prop up the frail yen.

Markets will be eyeing fresh money markets data to gauge if Tokyo intervened on Friday as well.

In cryptocurrencies, bitcoin rose 1% to trade just shy of the $65,000 mark, near its highest in a month. Ether was 1% higher at $3,466 at a two-week peak.

Cryptocurrencies, along with shares of companies that could benefit from a Donald Trump presidency, jumped on Monday after an assassination attempt on the Republican candidate boosted expectations he would win the November election.

Trump presented himself as a champion for cryptocurrency during a San Francisco fundraiser in June, although he has not offered specifics on his proposed crypto policy.

"While the crypto scene still has SEC Chair Gary Gensler as a consideration on the regulatory side, potentially having the leader of the free world in your corner will always sit well with crypto heads," said Chris Weston, head of research at Pepperstone.

In other currencies, the Australian dollar was 0.16% lower at $0.6749, creeping away from the six-month high it touched last week. The New Zealand dollar eased 0.17% to $0.6064, hitting a two-week low.

BUENOS AIRES (Reuters) - The Argentine parallel market peso appreciated against the U.S. dollar on Monday while the local stock market suffered, after new economic measures introduced by President Javier Milei's government over the weekend took effect.

Argentina's economy minister outlined on Saturday a plan to stop expanding the monetary base in an effort to combat inflation. The following day he announced a $1.5 billion purchase from the central bank to pay bond interest due in January.

The peso extended its gains to 6.01% at 1,415 pesos per dollar, after strengthening around 2% in early trading.

The gap between the black market "blue" exchange rate and the official rate narrowed slightly, and stood at 53%, after hitting some 60% last week.

"The announced measures can be taken as a positive, only if the gap falls significantly in the coming days and inflation plummets in the coming months," said local settlement and clearing agent Neix.

The benchmark Merval plummeted over 12% while over-the-counter bonds fell 3%.

By Kane Wu

HONG KONG (Reuters) - Goldman Sachs aims to raise $2 billion in its first Asia Pacific-focused private equity fund, two people with knowledge of the bank's fundraising plan said, as it looks to deepen exposure to some of the world's fastest-growing economies.

The fund-raising effort comes as private equity firms in Asia reshape investment strategies and country allocations amid geopolitical tension, a higher interest rate environment, market volatility, and macroeconomic headwinds.

Goldman Sachs Asset Management, the bank's investment arm, has been marketing the new fund to sovereign wealth funds, pension funds and private investors, setting its sights on a first close by the fourth quarter, the sources said.

The fund, whose target size is being reported for the first time, will focus primarily on investment opportunities in Japan, with about half its capital expected to be allocated to there, one of the sources said.

India, South Korea, and Australia will also be key markets for the fund, the source said.

Both sources sought anonymity as they were not authorised to speak to the media.

A spokesperson for Goldman declined to comment.

In the first half of 2024, Asia-focused private equity fundraising was up 4% on the year at $52.7 billion, but still a far cry from the first-half average in the past decade of $131.7 billion, says industry data provider Preqin.

Global investors have been particularly cautious about deploying capital in China, deterred by its economic slowdown, regulatory crackdown and Sino-U.S. tension, which have all weighed on Asia fundraising by global private equity firms.

By Ariba Shahid

KARACHI (Reuters) - Pakistan's benchmark share index rose 1.44% on Monday to hit a record high after the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and Pakistan reached a staff level agreement (SLA) for a $7 billion, 37-month loan program.

The deal caps negotiations that started in May after Islamabad completed a short-term, $3 billion program that helped stabilize the economy and avert a sovereign debt default, and set challenging revenue targets in its annual budget to help it win approval from the IMF.

The benchmark share index has almost doubled since Pakistan signed its last SLA for the $3 billion standby arrangement, and is up more than 10% since Pakistan presented its annual budget.

"$7 billion was pretty much expected. I think the markets will celebrate this SLA this week, because it is a short week with two days off," said Adnan Sheikh, assistant vice president of research at Pak Kuwait Investment Company.

"The market has grown used to the IMF deal being a highly politicized, news event and the IMF asking Pakistan to do more. This time it was a silent agreement between the government and the IMF staff," said Sheikh.

He added that the market is now expecting another interest rate cut by the central bank, despite a blip in inflation because of budget measures, and expects inflows of $2-3 billion during the month.

The IMF has said that the SLA agreement is subject to approval by its Executive Board and the timely confirmation of necessary financing assurances from Pakistan’s development and bilateral partners.

This would include rollovers or disbursements on loans from Pakistan's long-time allies Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and China.

The new bailout is aimed at cementing stability and inclusive growth in the crisis-plagued South Asian country, the IMF said in a statement.

Pakistan has been plagued by crippling boom-and-bust cycles for decades, leading to 22 IMF bailouts since 1958 and is currently the IMF's fifth-largest debtor, owing $6.28 billion as of July 11, according to IMF data.

BANGKOK (Reuters) -Thailand will finance a 500 billion baht ($13.8 billion) household handout scheme with the 2024 and 2025 budgets, a deputy finance minister said on Monday.

The government has not reduced the size of the stimulus programme but it is expected to use about 450 billion baht, Julapun Amornvivat told reporters, adding the funding was approved by a committee meeting chaired by the prime minister.

"The meeting approved the source of funds... from the 2024 and 2025 budgets, which will be sufficient," he said.

The funding plan is expected to be submitted to the cabinet next week before an announcement of full details on July 24, he added.The government previously said it would finance the policy with the 2024 and 2025 budgets and with capital from the state-owned Bank for Agriculture and Agricultural Cooperatives.

The scheme, which would see about 50 million Thais receive 10,000 baht each to spend locally within six months, is slated to start in the fourth quarter but the government has struggled to find sources of funding.

The plan was put forward by the ruling Pheu Thai Party as its flagship policy in the 2023 election. Economists and two former central bank governors have criticised it as fiscally irresponsible.

($1 = 36.19 baht)

BEIJING (Reuters) -China's new home prices fell at the fastest pace in nine years in June, official data showed on Monday, with the battered sector struggling to find a bottom despite government support measures to control oversupply and bolster confidence.

New home prices were down 4.5% from a year earlier, hitting the lowest since June 2015, deeper than a 3.9% slide in May, according to Reuters calculations based on National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) data.

Prices were down 0.7% month-on-month in June after a 0.7% dip in May.

Since 2021, the property market's steep downturn has led to a series of developers defaulting, leaving numerous construction sites idle. This has eroded confidence in the sector, traditionally favoured by Chinese households as a safe haven for their savings.

The property sector which at its peak accounted for a quarter of GDP, remains a major drag on the $18 trillion economy.

Authorities have rolled out a flurry of support measures, including cutting home buying costs in major cities and allowing local governments to buy some unsold apartments and turn them into affordable housing.

"The structure of supply and demand in the property sector has been fundamentally reversed. (The market) does not need to have excessively high expectations of the effects of the policies," said Zhang Dawei, analyst at Centaline Property Agency Ltd.

"It is unlikely that there will be a rise across the board in the sector in the future," Zhang said.

Property investment fell 10.1% in the first half of 2024 from a year earlier, and home sales by floor area fell 19.0%, deeper than a 20.3% slump in the first five months of the year, separate NBS figures showed.

Markets will closely scrutinise directives from the Communist Party leadership meeting starting on Monday where key economic issues will be discussed. Measures that redistribute income from central authorities to local municipalities and curbing an addiction to land sales laid bare by China's property crisis will top the agenda, policy advisers say.

Here’s your look at what's happening in markets for the week ahead.

1. Donald Trump speech at GOP convention

Former President Donald Trump was the target of an attempted assassination during a campaign rally in Butler, Pennsylvania. The assailant fired shots at Trump, hitting him in the right ear before being neutralized by security forces.

The incident occurred as Trump was addressing his supporters. According to Trump's own account shared on his Truth social media platform, he heard the sound of gunfire and felt the bullet as it pierced his skin.

Despite the attack, Trump was able to speak after the event, urging his audience to "Fight! Fight! Fight!"

Trump will receive his party's official nomination for US election this week at the four-day Republican National Convention in Milwaukee. His speech could be the first public appearance since the attempted assassination.

2. Fed Chair Powell speaks

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will be interviewed by David Rubenstein at the Economic Club of Washington DC. A session including questions is scheduled after the interview. 

In his recent testimony on Capitol Hill, Powell highlighted the central bank's ongoing efforts to tackle inflation and its commitment to a dual mandate.

Powell also expressed cautious optimism about inflation trends, noting some confidence in inflation moving down towards the 2% goal.

However, he clarified that it was premature to assert that the trend towards the 2% target would be sustainable.

3. Earnings season continues

The Q2 earnings season has started last week, and it will continue as soon as Monday when Goldman Sachs and BlackRock (NYSE:BLK) are scheduled to report on their financial performance.

Later in the week, Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, ASML (AS:ASML), and Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX) are also due to report their results.

Wall Street is expecting a very strong earnings season, much of which is already baked into current stock valuations. 

4. ECB interest rate decision

The European Central Bank (ECB) is widely expected to maintain its current rates after they eased in June. 

"We expect the ECB to be on hold at the July meeting. The press conference should focus on the future rate path and the developments in France," Morgan Stanley said in a note.

5. Jobless claims, Retail sales, Fed's Beige Book

Many pieces of economic data are expected to be released this week.

Among other things, the Federal Reserve will publish its Beige Book report, which is a collection of anecdotal information on current economic conditions from each of the twelve Federal Reserve Districts.

The report for the June FOMC meeting period highlighted that economic activity has continued to expand during the spring season. However, the expansion has been uneven across different sectors and districts.

The Beige Book detailed that businesses have observed a weakness in discretionary spending, attributing this to an increased price sensitivity among consumers.

Jobless claims and retail sales data are also due in the week ahead.

By Jamie McGeever

(Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian markets.

A dramatic escalation in U.S. political tension and violence looms over world markets on Monday after the attempted assassination of former President Donald Trump on Saturday, with Asian assets the first to show what the impact - if any - will be on trading and investing.

If the shooting strengthens Trump's election hopes, analysts reckon so-called 'Trump-victory trades' could include a stronger dollar and a steeper U.S. Treasury yield curve. Bitcoin was up 4% at $60,000 early in Monday's global session.

Even before Saturday's violence, there was no shortage of meaty issues for investors in Asia to get their teeth into on Monday - from snowballing U.S. rate cut expectations to suspected Japanese FX intervention and a deluge of economic data from China including second quarter GDP.

Last week's surprisingly soft U.S. inflation can keep the 'risk on' flame burning if U.S. bond yields, implied rates and the dollar all ease. Rates traders expect the Fed to cut rates by 75 basis points this year, starting in September.

But if that's being driven by weakening growth and a softer labor market, exuberance will be consumed by caution, especially with the Q2 U.S. earnings season getting underway.

Asia's calendar on Monday is dominated by the June 'data dump' from China as Beijing releases house price, industrial production, urban investment, retail sales, and unemployment figures for last month, and Q2 GDP.

Analysts and investors have set their expectations low.

Asia's largest economy is expected to have expanded 1.1% from the January-March period, resulting in year-on-year growth of 5.1%. Both would be down from prior readings of 1.6% and 5.3%, respectively.

China continues to struggle with a prolonged property crisis that has curbed investment, soured consumer confidence and demand, and kept alive the specter of deflation. Trade, bank lending figures and key money gauges last week darkened the gloom further.

China's central bank, meanwhile, is widely expected to leave the interest rate on its one-year medium-term lending facility loan unchanged at 2.50% on Monday.

Japanese markets are closed for a holiday on Monday but the yen will be traded across the continent, going into the session near a four-week high against the U.S. dollar following its rise on Friday.

Japanese authorities remain tight-lipped on whether they intervened last week. But the yen's sharp rally and daily Bank of Japan money market balance projections strongly point to official action, analysts say.

The yen had languished at 38-year lows around 162.00 per dollar last week, but goes into Monday around 157.90 per dollar.

Does the short covering rally have more juice in it? Probably - hedge funds are holding their largest net short yen position in 17 years, U.S. futures market figures show.

The surging yen triggered a 2.4% slump in Japanese stocks on Friday, its steepest fall since April. Having hit a record high above 42,000 points on Thursday, it could have more room to fall.

Elsewhere in Asia on Monday, India's wholesale price inflation is seen rising sharply to a 3.5% annual rate in June from 2.6% in May.

Here are key developments that could provide more direction to markets on Monday:

- China 'data dump' (June)

- China GDP (Q2)

- India wholesale price inflation (June)

Investing.com-- Wall Street marked an unexpected reaction to softer-than-expected inflation data, with heavyweight technology stocks logging steep losses after the reading even as optimism over a September interest rate cut grew. 

Losses in U.S. futures suggested that this trend was set to continue on Friday. But key producer price index data, and the onset of the second quarter earnings season, are set to offer more cues to markets. 

President Joe Biden also reiterated his intention to run against Donald Trump in the 2024 elections, dismissing calls for him to pull out amid growing concerns over his mental state. 

September rate cut bets swell after soft CPI, PPI data awaited 

Markets were seen ramping up bets on a September interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, following softer-than-expected consumer price index data on Thursday.

Traders were pricing in an 82% chance for a 25 basis point cut in September, up from expectations of a 64% chance seen last week, CME Fedwatch showed. This came last as CPI data showed inflation cooled a smidge more than expected in June, while core inflation increased only slightly.

Producer price index inflation data, which is due later on Friday, is now set to offer more cues on this trend. Any more signs of cooling inflation will likely factor into increased expectations of rate cuts.

Wall Street battered by tech rout

U.S. stock index futures fell in European trade, with losses in Nasdaq 100 Futures suggesting that a rout in technology stocks was set to extend into Friday.

Wall Street indexes had fallen sharply on Thursday as investors locked-in recent profits in heavyweight technology stocks, especially those that saw a stellar melt-up in recent weeks on hype over artificial intelligence.

This trend spilled over into Asian and European markets on Friday, with tech-heavy bourses clocking steep losses. 

But investors were also seen pivoting into more economically sensitive sectors, which are expected to benefit from improved growth as interest rates fall this year. 

Banks to kick off Q2 earnings season 

The second quarter earnings season is set to begin in earnest on Friday, with reports from a slew of major Wall Street banks on tap through the day.

JPMorgan Chase & Co (NYSE:JPM), Wells Fargo & Company (NYSE:WFC), Citigroup Inc (NYSE:C), and Bank of New York Mellon (NYSE:BK) are set to report earnings for the second quarter later in the day, with focus squarely on how corporate profits fared as the economy came under increasing pressure from high interest rates and sticky inflation. 

Friday’s reports will be followed by earnings from financial heavyweights Goldman Sachs Group Inc (NYSE:GS) and BlackRock Inc (NYSE:BLK) on Monday, while Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) and Bank of America Corp (NYSE:BAC) are set to report on Tuesday.

Biden says will still run in 2024 presidential race 

U.S. President Joe Biden reiterated his commitment to run against Donald Trump in the 2024 presidential elections, dismissing mounting concerns over his mental state. 

Biden said he was the “most qualified person to run for President,” while fielding questions from the press at a NATO summit on Thursday. Biden said that he had beaten Trump once and would do so again.

His comments came amid growing calls from several Democratic party members for the President to withdraw his reelection bid, in light of a seemingly disastrous performance in a debate with Trump in June. 

China trade data mixed, outlook dulled by import tariffs 

Markets were also grappling with mixed trade data from the world’s second largest economy. 

China’s trade balance surged to a bigger-than-expected surplus in June, underpinned by strong exports. But an unexpected drop in imports raised concerns over dwindling domestic demand.

Chinese imports of key commodities such as oil, iron ore and copper fell during the month, which set a negative tone for prices of the materials.

While exports were strong in June, they are also expected to face some headwinds in the coming months, especially as the European Union joined the U.S. in imposing tariffs on key Chinese industries, such as electric vehicles. The EU is a major EV market for China.

BEIJING (Reuters) -China suffered direct economic loss worth 93.16 billion yuan ($12.83 billion) in the first half of this year due to natural disasters, the government said on Friday.

This is the deepest first-half disaster-related loss since 2019, according to data available on the Emergency Management Ministry website, as the country suffered flooding, drought and extreme temperature in the first six months of the year.

China saw cold spells and heavy snow earlier in the year, a 7.1 magnitude earthquake in the northwestern region of Xinjiang, landslides in southwestern regions and flooding on the Yellow (OTC:YELLQ) River and in southern provinces this year.

At least 32.38 million people were affected due to natural disasters during January-June, including the disappearance or death of 322 people.

About 856,000 faced emergency resettlement and 23,000 houses were destroyed, while around 3.17 million hectares of crops were affected.

The impact on the economy was worse than the year-earlier period, when the country logged 38.23 billion yuan worth of loss and 95 people went missing or died.

For all of 2023, about 48.76 million people were affected due to natural disasters, according to the ministry's report from last year.

Funds channelled into disaster management has reached 4.17 billion yuan so far this year, according to a Reuters tally, with 546 million yuan allocated last month for agricultural production and disaster relief.

($1 = 7.2621 Chinese yuan)