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Fed not ready to cut yet even after CPI - Williams

Investing.com - The latest consumer inflation data has been broadly well received by financial markets, but Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams said this news, while positive, is not sufficient for the U.S. central bank to cut interest rates sometime soon.


Data released on Wednesday showed that U.S. consumer price growth had slowed as anticipated to 3.4% on an annualized basis in April, while so-called ‘core’ CPI, which excludes volatile energy and food prices, increased 3.6% annually, the smallest year-on-year gain since April 2021.


The softer inflation tone is "kind of a positive development after a few months where the data were disappointing," Williams said in an interview with Reuters on Wednesday, and "the overall trend looks reasonably good."


However, he is still not sufficiently confident that price pressures are moving sustainably to the Fed's 2% inflation target before lowering short-term borrowing costs.


Monetary policy is "restrictive" and "is in a good place," Williams said. "I don't see any indicators now telling me ... there's a reason to change the stance of monetary policy now, and I don't expect that, I don't expect to get that greater confidence that we need to see on inflation progress towards a 2% goal in the very near term."


Still, Williams also stated that he couldn’t see “any need to tighten monetary policy today," largely ending any speculation that the Fed might need to raise rates further to reduce inflation to desired levels.


Williams is one of the most respected voices at the central bank, and also serves as vice-chairman of the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee.


He had said earlier this month that the U.S. central bank will lower its interest rate target at some undefined point.


"Eventually we'll have rate cuts" but for now monetary policy is in a "very good place," Williams said in comments made before the Milken Institute 2024 Global Conference in Beverly Hills, California.


The Federal Open Market Committee maintained the overnight target at between 5.25% and 5.5% at its last meeting at the start of this month.

2024-05-17 08:48:04
US CPI, Cisco earnings, meme stocks - what's moving markets

Investing.com -- Wall Street futures traded largely unchanged ahead of the release of the key monthly consumer price report, which could guide future Federal Reserve thinking. Cisco (NASDAQ:CSCO)'s results are due after the close, while the meme stock rally continued apace. 


1. U.S. CPI looms large

The release of the crucial monthly U.S. consumer price report is the main event Wednesday, as it’s likely to influence the Federal Reserve's near-term policy path.


April’s consumer price index is due out during the U.S. trading morning, and economists expect that it rose 0.4% in April on a month-over-month basis, or 3.4% from 12 months earlier.


The core reading, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, is expected to show underlying inflation rising 3.6% on a year-over-year basis, which would be the smallest increase in over three years, a monthly rise of 0.3%.


Investors have had to dial back their expectations of U.S. rate cuts this year due to sticky inflation and are now pricing in 43 basis points of easing this year, compared with 150 bps of easing anticipated at the start of 2024.


Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell emphasised the point that inflation was proving difficult to tame in a speech at the Foreign Bankers' Association's Annual General Meeting in Amsterdam on Tuesday.


"Inflation in Q1 was notable for the lack of further progress," Powell said. "Confidence in inflation moving back down is lower than it was. My confidence on that is not as high as it was before."


U.S. producer prices increased more than expected in April, data showed on Tuesday, indicating that inflation remained stubbornly high early in the second quarter.


2. Futures little changed ahead of key CPI release
U.S. stock futures traded little changed Wednesday, amid caution ahead of the release of key inflation data, which could influence the Fed’s future monetary policy. 

By 04:30 ET (08:30 GMT), the Dow Jones Futures contract was 10 points, or 0.1%, higher, S&P 500 Futures traded largely unchanged, while Nasdaq 100 futures fell 10 points, or 0.1%.

The main Wall Street indices had a winning session on Tuesday, despite April producer prices rising by more than expected, but the more widely-watched consumer price index is likely to have a more significant impact if it differs from consensus [see above].

Other economic reports due out Wednesday include retail sales figures for April, May’s Empire State manufacturing survey and the housing market index.

In the corporate sector, footwear retailer Boot Barn (NYSE:BOOT) stock dropped more than 5% premarket on disappointing guidance for the full year, while solar tracker manufacturer Nextracker (NASDAQ:NXT) gained 12% on better-than-expected revenue.

3. Meme stocks continue to surge despite reservations
The so-called meme stocks, such as GameStop (NYSE:GME) and AMC Entertainment (NYSE:AMC), have continued to rise, with their Frankfurt-listed shares soaring Wednesday, in a continuation of this week's rally.

Cinema chain AMC gained 32% on Wall Street Tuesday, while video game retailer Gamestop surged 60%.

This followed a series of cryptic posts on social media platform X on Sunday from "Roaring Kitty" Keith Gill, a central figure behind the 2021 meme stock frenzy, following a three-year gap.

The posts didn’t mention any company names, instead included clips from movies including Pirates of the Caribbean, Tombstone, V For Vendetta, and a comic of a man sitting up in a chair. 

Legendary investor Bill Gross commented on the sharp gains by companies favored by many retail investors on the social media platform X:

"“Gamestonk” is passe. What could be a better buy signal than a cartoon man sitting upright in his chair?"

"Buy? Sell? Not me. Sell 400% annualized volatility," he wrote.

The buying craze is “frankly stupid,” said Cole Smead, CEO of Smead Capital Management which has around $6 billion of assets under management, in an interview with CNBC on Tuesday. “It is gambling.”

4. Cisco to report after the close
Cisco is scheduled to release its latest quarterly earnings after the close of trading Wednesday, and investors will be looking to see how the digital communications technology conglomerate has integrated Splunk (NASDAQ:SPLK), having closed the acquisition of the software company in March. 

Analysts expect a year-over-year decline in both the top and bottom lines in its fiscal third quarter, with the company's campus networking business continuing to face challenges.

“We forecast the core business to decline at a low- to-mid single-digit rate organically for the year, with the consolidation of Splunk driving the aggregate revenue growth of +3% y/y in FY25,” said analysts at JPMorgan, in a note.

“While F3Q results are typically too early for the company to provide an update about FY25, we believe there remains a potential opportunity that the company opts to provide more than typical guidance given that it will have to be otherwise an essential part of the discussion at the June 4 investor day,” the bank added.

5. Crude rises on hopes of tighter market
Crude prices rose Wednesday, as industry data showed a drop in U.S. inventories and boosted expectations of tighter global markets. 

By 03:30 ET, the U.S. crude futures traded 0.7% higher at $78.54 a barrel, while the Brent contract climbed 0.6% to $82.83 per barrel.

Data from the American Petroleum Institute indicated on Tuesday that U.S. oil inventories shrank 3.1 million barrels in the week to May 10, with the data also showing a decline in gasoline stockpiles.

If confirmed by the official data later Wednesday, this would suggest U.S. fuel demand was picking up with the advent of the travel-heavy summer season - a trend that could help tighten global crude supplies, even as U.S. production remains at record highs.

Expectations of tighter North American markets were also furthered by a swathe of devastating wildfires near Fort McMurray, a major Canadian oil sands city.

This optimism has overshadowed the International Energy Agency trimming its forecast for 2024 oil demand growth earlier Wednesday.

The Paris-based energy watchdog lowered its growth outlook for this year by 140,000 barrels per day to 1.1 million bpd, largely citing weak demand in developed OECD nations.
2024-05-16 16:25:38
China property shares jump on report of government plans to buy unsold homes

By Clare Jim


HONG KONG (Reuters) -Shares of Chinese property developers jumped on Thursday, after a report that China is considering a plan for local governments nationwide to buy millions of unsold homes from distressed companies to ease a protracted property crisis.


Hong Kong's Hang Seng Mainland Properties Index firmed as much as 6% in morning trading.


State-backed Sino-Ocean Group surged more than 50% and defaulted private developers CIFI Holdings and Shimao Group jumped more than 30%.


Hong Kong's markets were closed on Wednesday for a public holiday. They have been catching up to gains in mainland property shares since the previous day.


China's CSI 300 Real Estate index climbed over 3% on Thursday, following a 2.2% rise on Wednesday.


Bloomberg News said on Wednesday the State Council is gathering feedback on the preliminary plan from various provinces and government bodies, after a meeting of the ruling Communist Party leaders in late April called for efforts to clear mounting housing inventory.


Local state-owned enterprises would be asked to help purchase unsold homes from distressed developers at steep discounts using loans provided by state banks, according to the report, which added that many of these homes would be converted into affordable housing.


China's property sector slipped into a debt crisis in mid-2021. Since 2022, waves of policy measures have failed to turn around the sector that represents around a fifth of the economy and remains a major drag on consumer spending and confidence.


POLICY RAMP-UP


Over the past years, some local governments have already announced plans to buy unfinished or unsold homes from developers and turn them into social housing.


Authorities also, in recent weeks, ramped up policies intended to clear the stock of unsold housing. Large cities like Beijing and Shenzhen have eased home purchase restrictions, with some allowing homebuyers to "swap" to a new home from an old one.

"We believe there is limited further action that the local governments can take on their own to support the property sector. It now comes to the central government to introduce meaningful measures for the property sector," Nomura said in a report.

If governments can acquire a meaningful volume of unsold homes from developers, it will help resolve the inventory issue and also channel fund flows to the credit-trapped private companies, said Nomura.

This, in turn, would support construction activities and alleviate the sector's downward spiral, it added.

DEMAND WORRIES

However, some have been concerned about the lack of housing demand in smaller cities, with worries surfacing that such a plan would further weigh on the financial health of local governments.

Local governments are already more than $9 trillion in debt and pose a major risk to China's economy and financial stability.

"It would only work in higher-tier cities but not lower-tier ones; where would the buyers come from?" said an analyst from another Asian bank, who declined to be named as he was not authorised to speak to the media.

"Telling local governments in those cities to buy inventory would just burn their balance sheet."

Goldman Sachs estimated this week that saleable housing inventory was valued at 13.5 trillion yuan ($1.87 trillion) at end-2023, and because some of their construction had not been completed, it would require 5 trillion yuan of capital investment to complete them.

($1 = 7.2151 Chinese yuan renminbi)
2024-05-16 14:34:46
US fines Volaris up to $300,000 for violating tarmac delay rules

By David Shepardson


WASHINGTON (Reuters) -The U.S. Transportation Department said Wednesday it had fined Mexican carrier Volaris Airlines up to $300,000 for violating federal law on airport tarmac delays.


Federal law and government regulations prohibit tarmac delays of four hours or more on international flights without providing passengers an opportunity to deplane.


The department said in 2021 and 2022, Volaris allowed two flights to remain on the tarmac for lengthy periods without providing passengers an opportunity to deplane in Houston and St. Louis. Volaris will pay $150,000 of the fine and must pay the other $150,000 fine if it violates the tarmac rules within a year. The U.S. Department of Transportation (USDOT) has issued a number of similar fines to other carriers in recent years.


Volaris, which did not immediately respond to a request for comment, agreed to the penalty and told USDOT a series of events outside of its control combined to cause the tarmac delays and said it takes the rules seriously.


"This enforcement action reflects our ongoing commitment to protecting consumers and holding airlines accountable," Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg said in a statement.


USDOT in January 2023 said it planned to seek higher penalties from airlines and others that broke consumer protection rules, saying they were necessary to deter future violations.


In August, it fined American Airlines (NASDAQ:AAL) $4.1 million for unlawfully keeping thousands of passengers on the tarmac for hours, the largest-ever penalty for violating the rule.


American told the department the delays were the result of exceptional weather events, and that the 43 impacted flights represented less than 0.001% of the approximately 7.7 million flights operated.


In April 2023, USDOT imposed a $135,000 penalty on British Airways over a 2017 tarmac delay in which it failed to ensure the timely deplaning of passengers.

2024-05-16 13:03:06
Japan's GDP contracts, complicating BOJ's rate hike plans

By Satoshi Sugiyama and Tetsushi Kajimoto


TOKYO (Reuters) - Japan's economy contracted in the first quarter, squeezed by weaker private consumption and external demand and throwing a fresh challenge to policymakers as the central bank looks to lift interest rates away from near-zero levels.


Preliminary gross domestic product (GDP) data from the Cabinet Office on Thursday showed Japan's economy shrank 2.0% annualised in January-March from the prior quarter, versus a 1.5% drop seen in a Reuters poll of economists. It followed a slightly positive reading in the fourth quarter.


The reading translates into a quarterly contraction of 0.5%, versus a 0.4% decline expected by economists in the Reuters' poll.


Private consumption, which accounts for more than half of the Japanese economy, fell 0.7%, versus a 0.2% decline seen in the Reuters poll. It was the fourth straight quarter of decline, the longest streak since 2009.


Capital spending, a key driver of private demand-led growth, fell 0.8% in the first quarter, versus a decline of 0.7% seen by economists in Reuters' poll, despite hefty corporate earnings.


External demand, or exports minus imports, knocked 0.3 of a percentage point off first quarter GDP estimates.


Policymakers are counting on rising wages and income tax cuts from June to help spur flagging consumption.


The drag to growth from an earthquake in the Noto area this year and the suspension of operations at Toyota (NYSE:TM)'s Daihatsu unit are also expected to fade.


A sharp decline in the yen to levels unseen since 1990 has fueled concerns about higher living costs, squeezing consumption.

2024-05-16 10:47:57
Kashkari backs higher for longer rates amid doubt on whether policy is restrictive

Investing.com -- Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari on Wednesday backed the case for higher for longer interest rates after expressing uncertainty about how restrictive the current level of monetary policy is in the wake of more resilient than expected economy. 


"The biggest uncertainty in my mind is how much downward pressure is monetary policy putting on the economy ...  that's an unknown, we don't know for sure," Kashkari said Wednesday during a a moderated discussion at the 2024 Williston Basin Petroleum Conference in Bismarck, North Dakota. 


"That tells me we probably need to sit here for a while longer, until we figure out where underlying inflation is headed," he added. 


The current level of interest rates of 5.25% to 5.5% would normally be restrictive enough to slow the economy and inflation, but due pandemic-related distortions including a huge wave of fiscal spending, stimulus checks and other supportive measures have made the economy more resilience than the Fed had expected. 


"It seems like there is more resilience in the economy than I had expected," Kashkari added. Because of some of these dynamics, these interest rates only really mean we're putting one foot on the brake and not two." 


The remarks arrived just hours after the economic data showed the consumer price index slowed more than expected last month following three months of upside surprises. The slowdown in consumer prices came a day after a producer price inflation came in hotter than expected. 


But on the heels of the hot producer price report, a "cooler-than-expected consumer price report has immediately eased concerns of rapidly rising inflation, fueling investors’ hopes for rate cuts in the coming months," Stifel said in a Wednesday note.

2024-05-16 08:43:49
Rate cut bets make investors 'most bullish' since Nov 2021 - BofA survey

MILAN (Reuters) - Expectations over interest rate cuts rather than earnings optimism has made investors the "most bullish" since November 2021, Bank of America's monthly fund manager survey for May showed on Tuesday.


The survey of global fund managers with $562 billion in asset under management found 82% expect the first by the rate cut by the Federal Reserve in the second half, while 78% say a recession is unlikely over the next 12 months.


Cash levels fell to a 3-year low of 4% from 4.2% the previous months and stock allocation reached its highest since January 2022, the survey showed.

2024-05-14 16:18:50
Uber to buy Delivery Hero's foodpanda business in Taiwan for $950 million

(Reuters) -Ride-hailing company Uber (NYSE:UBER) will acquire Delivery Hero's foodpanda branded takeaway business in Taiwan for $950 million in cash, the companies said on Tuesday.


Germany's Delivery Hero plans to additionally issue 8.42 million new ordinary registered shares which Uber has agreed to purchase for $300 million, the two companies said.


Following the move, Uber would hold around 2.98% of the Delivery Hero’s new share capital.


The companies aim to complete the transaction by the first half of 2025, they said, adding that following deal's closure foodpanda’s local consumers, merchants and delivery partners would be transitioned to Uber Eats.


The deal comes months after Delivery Hero said that talks regarding a potential sale of its foodpanda business in selected markets in Southeast Asia had been terminated.


($1 = 0.9271 euros)

2024-05-14 14:49:28
Asia shares hit 15-month high as traders wait for CPI

By Tom Westbrook


SINGAPORE (Reuters) - Asian shares hovered around 15-month highs on Tuesday and the dollar was firm ahead of highly anticipated U.S. inflation data, while Japanese bonds were squeezed as the central bank pulled back a little on its bond buying programme.


MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan climbed slightly and hit its highest since early 2023 in morning trade, as a strong rally in Hong Kong shares extended into a fourth consecutive week. (HK)


Japan's Nikkei was flat. Benchmark 10-year Japanese government bond yields rose one basis point to 0.95%, the highest yield since November, and five-year Japanese yields hit 0.555%, the highest since 2011. [JP/]


World stocks and the S&P 500 were steady overnight, poised just below record peaks. A survey released on Monday by the New York Fed showed Americans see inflation a year from now at 3.3%, higher than they did a month earlier, and later on Tuesday U.S. producer price figures will be closely watched.


Alibaba (NYSE:BABA) will most likely report results later on Tuesday.


The main focus this week is on Wednesday's actual U.S. CPI figures, to see whether some upside surprises in the first quarter were a blip or a worrying trend. Expectations are for core CPI to slow from an annual 3.8% in March to 3.6% for April.


"This would be good, but not enough to confirm Fed easing plans in (the third quarter)," Bob Savage, head of markets strategy and insights at BNY Mellon (NYSE:BK), said in a note to clients.


In the currency market, nerves and the inflation expectation survey were enough to keep the dollar from falling. Dollar/yen hit its highest since the start of the month, when traders reckoned Japanese authorities were intervening to buy yen.


The yen traded as soft as 156.4 to the dollar. The euro was steady at $1.0786 and the Australian and New Zealand dollars kept to recent ranges, the Aussie at $0.6606 and kiwi at $0.6015.


HANG SENG SURGES


In China, Hong Kong's Hang Seng index is up 30% from January's lows and has surged nearly 20% in a month.


News and data in recent days included a third straight monthly rise in consumer prices, better than expected imports data, record low credit growth and marketing of a trillion yuan in long-data special treasury bonds.


Investors see positive demand signals and signs that as monetary policy is reaching its limits, and with borrowers shy, authorities are planning to spend to support growth.


"Walking through the recent policy announcements, including the expansion of stock connect and encouraging leading enterprises to list in Hong Kong, it is hard not to come to the conclusion that top management in China intends to reinstate Hong Kong's role as an IPO hub," said OCBC analysts.


In New Zealand, inflation expectations have dropped, data published on Monday showed, and construction supplier Fletcher Building cut its outlook, citing a housing slowdown.


Fletcher's Australia-listed shares hit a two-decade low on Tuesday. Australia's government is expected to boast another surplus in its annual budget due on Tuesday.


Shares in bellwether Australian automotive equipment seller GUD leapt 9% after it forecast meeting expectations.


In Japan, the central bank announced its first cut to bond buying operations since December on Monday - a surprise hawkish signal to investors that drove selling in the market.


Two-year Japanese yields were untraded early on Tuesday but hit their highest since 2009. U.S. Treasuries were steady in Asia trade to leave 10-year yields at 4.49% and two-year yields at 4.86%. [US/]


The so-called meme stocks, which swung wildly after finding popularity in retail trading blogs and social media posts, leapt to life overnight after user "Roaring Kitty", credited with sparking the 2021 frenzy, returned to post on X.com.


Videogame store operator GameStop (NYSE:GME) rose 74%. Oil and gold were broadly steady with Brent crude futures at $83.40 a barrel and spot gold at $2,339 an ounce.

2024-05-14 12:50:09
China calls for stable ties with South Korea despite 'difficulties'

(Corrects paragraph 3 to clarify that Cho's trip is the first by a South Korean foreign minister to Beijing, not to China, in more than six years)


By Ryan Woo, Ju-min Park and Hyonhee Shin


BEIJING/SEOUL (Reuters) -China and South Korea should seek stable ties despite their recent "difficulties", Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi told his South Korean counterpart on Monday at a rare meeting in Beijing held amid tensions over Taiwan and other regional issues.


South Korea's Foreign Minister Cho Tae-yul said the countries needed to keep up momentum on cooperation and carefully manage ties, in a meeting that Cho's ministry said lasted for four hours.


Cho arrived in Beijing on Monday, his first trip to China since taking office in January, and the first visit to Beijing by a South Korean foreign minister in more than six years.


Relations between Beijing and Seoul came under new stress when South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol said last year that democratically governed Taiwan, which China claims as part of its territory, was a "global issue", not just an issue between China and Taiwan.


Yoon added last year that the increased tensions around Taiwan were due to attempts to change the status quo by force, and he opposed such a change. China protested, saying the comments were "erroneous" and "totally unacceptable".


The Taiwan issue surfaced again in March when the island participated in a U.S.-backed democracy summit in Seoul. Beijing accused Seoul at the time of providing a platform for "Taiwan independence forces".


On Monday, Wang told Cho that China-South Korea relations had "faced difficulties and challenges, which are not in the common interest of both parties and not what China wants to see," according to a Chinese foreign ministry statement.


"It is hoped that South Korea will abide by the one-China principle, properly and prudently handle Taiwan-related issues, and consolidate the political foundation of bilateral relations," Wang added.


South Korea's foreign ministry did not mention Wang's Taiwan comment in its own statement.


TRILATERAL SUMMIT


Cho told Wang their countries should work together and "even if there are difficulties, momentum of cooperation should be continued while carefully managing the relations," according to the South Korean foreign ministry.


He added that they could continue to prepare for a summit of the leaders of China, South Korea and Japan in Seoul, planned for the end of May. The leaders of the three countries last met in China in 2019.


The Chinese statement made no mention of the summit.


Cho also called on China, as a permanent member of the U.N. Security Council, to play a constructive role for peace and stability on the Korean Peninsula, according to Cho's ministry.


Cho also asked for China's cooperation so North Korean defectors in China could go to their desired destinations without being forcibly repatriated to North Korea by Beijing.


China has long denied that there are any defectors from North Korea, which counts on Beijing as an ally, and says it follows the law when dealing people who enter its territory illegally.


ECONOMIC TIES


Wang and Cho agreed, according to their ministries, that the economic ties of the two countries had been a force in each other's development, and agreed to strengthen their cooperation, including the ensuring of stable supply chains.


Ahead of his talks with Wang, however, Cho had said that once mutually beneficial economic ties were seeing intensifying rivalry, and vowed support for businessmen seeking to harness market opportunities in China while minimising any accompanying risks.


On his part, Wang said he hoped China and South Korea could work together to promote stable relations and "eliminate interference", which he did not elaborate.


Chinese state media have reported that the differences between Beijing and Seoul were due to Yoon's leaning towards the United States, amid intensifying Sino-U.S. rivalry.


Yoon has also been vocal about the tensions between the Philippines and China in the South China Sea.


2024-05-14 10:33:16