(Reuters) - Goldman Sachs on Monday raised its year-end 2025 gold price forecast to $3,100 per ounce, up from $2,890, citing sustained central bank demand.

The bank estimates that "structurally higher central bank demand will add 9% to the gold price by year-end, which combined with a gradual boost to ETF holdings as the funds rate declines."

This should outweigh the drag from normalizing investor positioning, assuming uncertainty diminishes, Goldman Sachs added.

However, if policy uncertainty, including tariff concerns, remains high, Goldman sees the potential for gold to surge to $3,300 per ounce by year-end due to prolonged speculative positioning.

The bank has also revised its central bank demand assumption upward to 50 tonnes per month from the previous estimate of 41 tonnes.

If purchases average 70 tonnes per month, gold prices could climb to $3,200 per ounce by the end of 2025, assuming positioning normalizes, Goldman said.

Conversely, if the Federal Reserve keeps interest rates steady, the bank expects gold to reach $3,060 per ounce in the same period, the bank added.

Reiterating its "Go for Gold" trading recommendation, Goldman Sachs said that while declining uncertainty could lead to a tactical pullback in prices, long gold positions remain a strong hedge.

This is particularly relevant in the face of potential trade tensions, Federal Reserve subordination risks, and financial or recessionary threats, which could push prices toward the upper end of Goldman's high-uncertainty range, the bank said.

Additionally, if concerns over U.S. fiscal sustainability escalate, Goldman Sachs sees gold rising an extra 5% to $3,250 per ounce by December 2025.

Growing fears of inflation and fiscal risks could drive speculative positioning and ETF flows higher, while worries about U.S. debt sustainability may encourage central banks, especially those with large U.S. Treasury reserves, to increase their gold purchases, the investment bank added.

By Nell Mackenzie

LONDON (Reuters) -European shares rose to record levels on Monday, led by defence stocks, as the region's political leaders called for an emergency summit on the Ukraine war amid growing U.S. calls to boost military spending for security.

The pan-European STOXX 600 index was last up 0.4%, as a gauge of defence and aerospace stocks surged almost 4% to lifetime peaks, having already more than doubled in value since Russia invaded Ukraine three years ago.

Investors expect earnings in the industry to continue to rise strongly, driven by a significant surge in defence budgets to meet new security needs - which analysts have dubbed a "supercycle" for the sector.

"A resolution to the conflict in Ukraine could deliver positive growth impulses for Europe, including improved consumer confidence, lower energy prices, and easier financial conditions," Bruno Schneller, managing director at Erlen Capital Management.

Banks were also in demand, up 1.2% and flying to 17-year highs, helped by a rise in bond yields.

French President Emmanuel Macron on Monday hosted an emergency summit on Ukraine after U.S. officials suggested Europe would have no role in any talks this week in Saudi Arabia aimed at ending the conflict.

Britain said it was ready to send peacekeeping troops to back up any deal, while Russian and U.S. officials prepared to meet for their own competing talks on Tuesday in Saudi Arabia. Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said on Monday that the country would not recognise any decisions made in deliberations where they were not present.

DELAYED THREATS

The imminent threat of reciprocal U.S. tariffs has receded until April, but the risk that they might include levies based on value added taxes in other countries was a major worry.

"Trade policy remains a wildcard, with the potential for incremental tariffs and their impact on inflation and growth. While the announced tariffs have not yet materially altered the economic landscape, further escalation could introduce new uncertainties," Schneller added.

The Financial Times reported on Sunday that the European Commission would explore tough import limits on certain foods made to different standards in an effort to protect its farmers, echoing U.S. President Donald Trump's reciprocal trade policy.

U.S. markets are shut on Monday for the Presidents Day holiday, keeping trading volumes lighter than usual, though the S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq futures rose 0.2%.

S&P 500 ended Friday up 1.5% on the week, while the Nasdaq gained 2.6%. [.N]

The week ahead is filled with key data releases, including February flash business activity data across the globe while in Europe, markets also have their eye on German elections this weekend.

The euro was little ticked down 0.2% around $1.05, while the dollar slipped almost 0.6% to 151.46 yen.,

The pound held steady at around $1.2593 , just below its highest level in two months, as investors looked towards employment and inflation data later in the week.

Central banks in Australia and New Zealand are both expected to cut interest rates at policy meetings this week.

In commodity markets, gold came off Friday's record highs at $2,899 an ounce having rallied for seven weeks straight. [GOL/]

Oil producer group OPEC+ is considering pushing back a series of monthly supply increases due to begin in April despite calls from Trump to lower prices, Bloomberg News reported on Monday, citing delegates. [O/R]

Brent rose 9 cents to $74.82 a barrel, while U.S. crude gained 13 cents to $70.87 per barrel.

JAKARTA (Reuters) - Indonesia booked a $3.45 billion merchandise trade surplus in January, bigger than expected, amid surprisingly weak imports, official data showed on Monday.

A Reuters poll of analysts had expected a surplus of $1.91 billion for January.

Imports last month were worth $18 billion, down 2.67% from the same month a year earlier, in contrast with analysts' forecast of a 9.95% growth.

Exports rose 4.68% on an annual basis in January to $21.45 billion, compared with 6.99% growth expected in the poll.

By Wayne Cole

SYDNEY (Reuters) - Asia share markets crept higher on Monday as Hong Kong's tech sector stole the limelight, while upbeat Japanese economic growth contrasted with a weak U.S. retail sales report to lift the yen on the dollar.

Geopolitics remained in focus with reports that talks on the Russian-Ukraine conflict will begin in Saudi Arabia this week, though the participants are not entirely clear.

The imminent threat of reciprocal U.S. tariffs has receded until April, but the risk that they might include levies based on value added taxes in other countries was a major worry.

"The prospect, however misguided, of the U.S. levying an additional 20% tariff on all EU imports, on top of whatever else it deems appropriate, and to varying degrees on all other countries who have VAT regimes is a truly terrifying prospect in terms of the implications for global growth," said Ray Attrill, head of FX research at National Australia Bank (OTC:NABZY).

The Financial Times reported on Sunday that the European Commission would explore tough import limits on certain foods made to different standards in an effort to protect its farmers, echoing President Donald Trump's reciprocal trade policy.

For now, investors were just relieved that major tariffs had not already been introduced and MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan firmed 0.3%.

Tokyo's Nikkei edged up 0.2% after Japan reported surprisingly strong economic growth of an annualised 2.8% for the fourth quarter. The gains were limited by a further rise in the yen to 151.65 per dollar.

By Brijesh Patel and Daksh Grover

(Reuters) -Silver prices hit their highest since late October on Friday, latching on to factors that drove gold to successive record highs, with some analysts suggesting investors in the metal may aim to challenge a 10-year high just shy of $35 per ounce.

However some analysts were cautious on the market's trajectory, given higher volatility in silver and a failure to reach similar dizzying heights as gold in 2024.

Spot silver was last up 2% at $33 per ounce, having hit its highest level since late October at $33.41. The white metal scaled a more than 10-year peak of $34.87 per ounce on October 22. [GOL/]

"Silver's been a laggard, and some would refer to it as the Cinderella metal, because it always misses the ball. Having said that, silver has finally woken up and broken above some key technical resistance," independent analyst Ross Norman said.

If current momentum continued, silver could challenge the $35 level, he added.

After rising 21% in 2024, silver, both a precious and industrial metal, has gained 14% so far in 2025 supported by similar factors to gold - a jump in U.S. Comex futures prices on concerns of a possible trade war sparked by proposed U.S. import tariffs. The U.S. March silver contract was last up 3.3% at $33.79.

In recent weeks the spread between Comex gold futures and London spot prices has widened significantly, while the spot gold price hit a record $2,942.70 per ounce on Tuesday. [GOL/]

Investing.com-- U.S. stock index futures moved little in holiday-thinned trade on Sunday evening, amid persistent caution over U.S. President Donald Trump’s plans for trade tariffs and signs of sticky inflation. 

Futures steadied after a mixed session on Wall Street on Friday, where the S&P 500 ended just below record highs amid sustained gains in technology stocks. But most other sectors lagged.

Focus this week is now on a slew of Federal Reserve speakers, as well as the minutes of the central bank’s January meeting, where it kept interest rates steady. Strong inflation readings from last week kept investors anticipating no near-term cuts in interest rates. 

S&P 500 Futures rose slightly to 6,135.50 points, while Nasdaq 100 Futures rose 0.1% to 22,212.50 points by 19:25 ET (00:25 GMT). Dow Jones Futures steadied at 44, 646.0 points. 

Trading volumes were muted, with U.S. markets set to remain closed for a holiday on Monday. 

Trump tariff caution persists 

Investors remained on edge over more tariff action under Trump, who last week imposed 25% tariffs on all imports of steel and aluminum.

Trump also signed an executive order outlining plans for reciprocal tariffs against U.S. trading partners, which could ramp up a global trade war. Trump had earlier this month also imposed 10% tariffs against China.

Still, Trump said that his reciprocal tariffs will only be imposed by April, offering markets some relief. 

The S&P 500 ended flat at 6,114.63 points on Friday, while the NASDAQ Composite rose 0.4% to 20,026.77 points. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.4% to 44,546.08 points. 

By Ethan Wang and Kevin Yao

BEIJING (Reuters) -New bank loans in China surged more than expected to a record high in January as the central bank moved to shore up a patchy economic recovery, reinforcing expectations for more stimulus in coming months as U.S. tariffs threaten to pile more pressure on the economy.

Chinese banks extended 5.13 trillion yuan ($706.40 billion) in new yuan loans in January, more than quadrupling the December figure, data from the People's Bank of China showed on Friday, beating analysts' forecasts

Analysts polled by Reuters had predicted new yuan loans would rise to 4.5 trillion yuan last month, up sharply from 990 billion yuan in December and compared with 4.92 trillion yuan a year earlier - the previous record.

Chinese banks usually rush to lend at the beginning of the year as they compete for higher-quality customers and win market share, but analysts cautioned that lingering economic uncertainty continues to weigh on credit demand.

"While the headline figures for new local currency loans hit a record high in January, that's only due to the usual season pattern. Net lending is always the strongest in the start of the year," Capital Economics said in a note.

"Bank loan growth continued to slide to record lows, but this was offset by a pick-up in non-bank credit growth. Robust government bond issuance should continue supporting credit growth in the coming quarters, but weak private demand will likely keep credit growth subdued."

Household loans, including mortgages, rose to 443.8 billion yuan in January from 350 billion yuan in December, while corporate loans jumped to 4.78 trillion yuan from 490 billion yuan, central bank data showed.

New bank lending totalled 18.09 trillion yuan last year, down from a record 22.75 trillion yuan in 2023 and hitting the lowest level since 2019, as businesses and consumers remained cautious about taking on more debt amid an uncertain economic outlook.

The economy grew 5% in 2024, meeting the government's official target, but the post-pandemic recovery has been patchy, with exports and manufacturing making up for weak domestic consumption.

Beijing is expected to maintain a growth target of around 5% this year, but analysts are uncertain over how quickly policymakers can revive sluggish domestic demand, even as U.S. President Donald Trump's punitive trade measures put more pressure on Chinese exporters.

To sustain growth and counter rising external pressures, Beijing has pledged higher fiscal spending, increased debt issuance and further monetary easing.

The central bank said on Thursday it would adjust its monetary policy at the appropriate time and use policy tools such as interest rates and bank reserve requirement ratios (RRR) to support the economy, amid rising external headwinds.

China is facing a renewed trade war with the United States after President Donald Trump slapped sweeping 10% tariffs on all Chinese imports.

In response, Beijing announced tariffs up to 15% on some U.S. imports starting February 10.

Still, the measures so far have been more modest than markets had feared, raising hopes there was room for negotiating.

Since September, Beijing has stepped up efforts to get the economy back on track, including interest rate cuts, a 10 trillion yuan debt relief package for local government, and tax incentives to spur demand in the crisis-hit property market.

FURTHER POLICY EASING EXPECTED

While the central bank has been firmly supporting the yuan currency in the face of Trump's threats, analysts expect it will deliver further cuts in interest rates and RRR as early as the first quarter.

Investors are looking to the annual parliament meeting in March, when the government is expected to unveil fresh stimulus measures, alongside economic targets.

Reflecting credit demand concerns, outstanding yuan loans rose 7.5% in January from a year earlier - the lowest on record - down from 7.6% pace in December. Analysts had expected 7.3% growth.

Broad M2 money supply grew 7.0% from a year earlier, the central bank data showed, below analysts' 7.2% forecast in a Reuters poll. In December, M2 expanded 7.3%.

The narrower M1 money supply climbed 0.4% in January from a year earlier, compared with a 1.4% fall in December.

Starting from January, the central bank included personal demand deposits and non-bank payment institutions' client provisions in M1, which previously covered only cash in circulation and corporate demand deposits.

Annual growth of outstanding total social financing (TSF), a broad measure of credit and liquidity in the economy, came in at 8.0% in January, unchanged from December.

Acceleration in government bond issuance to boost the economy could help boost growth in TSF.

TSF includes off-balance sheet forms of financing that exist outside the conventional bank lending system, such as initial public offerings, loans from trust companies, and bond sales.

TSF surged to 7.06 trillion yuan in January from 2.86 trillion yuan in December . Analysts polled by Reuters had expected 6.4 trillion yuan.

($1 = 7.2622 Chinese yuan renminbi)

Investing.com-- Gold prices moved little in Asian trade on Friday, remaining close to record highs even as U.S. President Donald Trump postponed plans for reciprocal tariffs, sparking a risk-on move in financial markets.

But steep losses in the dollar aided gold, as the greenback gave up a bulk of its recent gains on Trump’s move. The dollar was also dented by some mixed inflation data, which drove up optimism over lower interest rates this year. 

Weakness in the dollar also helped gold move past diminished safe haven demand, as Trump flagged potential peace talks over Russia and Ukraine. 

Spot gold steadied at $2,928.91 an ounce, while gold futures expiring in April rose 0.4% to $2,957.19 an ounce by 00:22 ET (05:22 GMT). Spot gold remained close to a record high of $2,943.25/oz hit earlier this week. 

Gold heads for seventh positive week as haven demand persists 

Gold prices were set to add about 2.4% this week- their seventh consecutive week of gains, as demand for safe havens remained in play amid uncertainty over Trump’s policies.

Trump on Thursday signed an executive order exploring potential reciprocal tariffs on major U.S. trading partners, which will be imposed by April, as compared to earlier threats that they would come this week.

Market sentiment improved on this notion, given that the April deadline gives countries more time to negotiate with Washington.

But Trump still kept up his harsh trade rhetoric, having imposed 25% duties on steel and aluminum imports earlier this week.

Uncertainty over Trump kept safe haven bids for gold squarely in play, even as near-term risk sentiment appeared to have improved.

Copper, industrial metals benefit from tariff speculation

Industrial metals surged this week, as Trump’s tariffs on the sector spurred bets that U.S. companies will struggle to source domestic supplies. While copper was not subject to any tariffs, traders were seen betting that the red metal will also eventually face duties.

Additionally, China also imposed export controls on several key materials as retaliation for Trump’s tariffs, drumming up hopes of a supply shortfall. 

Benchmark copper futures on the London Metal Exchange rose 0.9% to $9,572.05 a ton, while March copper futures rose 0.4% to $4.8045 a pound. 

Softer dollar benefits metal markets amid mixed inflation

The dollar fell sharply over the past two sessions, giving up most of its recent gains made on Trump’s tariffs.

But the dollar was also pressured by somewhat mixed inflation data, which spurred bets on eventual interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.

While both producer and consumer inflation readings read higher than expected for January, certain components of the two which factor into PCE price index inflation, softened slightly.

PCE data is the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, and a downtrend in the reading could give the central bank more headroom to cut rates.

Other precious metal prices rose on this notion. Platinum futures rose 0.2% to $1,050.45 an ounce, while silver rallied nearly 2% to $33.352 an ounce.

(Reuters) - Japanese investors withdrew heavily from foreign stocks in the week through February 8, snapping an eight-week buying spree as U.S. President Donald Trump's widening tariffs threat sparked fears of global trade relationships reshaping in the U.S.' favour.

Japanese investors divested 1.27 trillion yen ($8.31 billion) worth of foreign equities on a net basis, the most for a week since November 2022, according to Japan's Ministry of Finance data.

Trump has previously announced steep tariffs on Mexico, Canada, and China -- although he has delayed implementing some of those -- and towards the end of last week, widened his focus by threatening to slap reciprocal tariffs on countries that tax the import of U.S. products.

In response, Japanese investors sought the relative safety of bonds, pumping in a robust 1.75 trillion yen into foreign long-term bonds, the largest amount in any week since September 2024. They also snapped up a net 18 billion yen worth of short-term bills.

At the same time, Japanese shares suffered a net 384.4 billion yen worth of foreign outflows, the second week of net sales in a row.

Foreigners also ditched 187.2 billion yen worth of long-term Japanese bonds, snapping a three-week-long buying trend. They, however, purchased short-term bills of a net 508.1 billion yen, registering a fifth weekly net purchase in six weeks.

($1 = 152.7900 yen)

Most Asian stocks moved in a flat-to-low range on Friday amid growing concerns over increased U.S. trade tariffs and sticky inflation, while an artificial intelligence-fueled rally in Chinese stocks powered on.

Regional markets took limited cues from a strong overnight close on Wall Street, as investors were relieved by U.S. President Donald Trump not immediately imposing reciprocal tariffs, as he had earlier threatened. 

But U.S. stock index futures were flat in Asian trade, given that Trump still signed an order outlining plans to impose higher duties on major U.S. trading partners. Hotter-than-expected producer inflation data also added to angst over higher for longer interest rates, following a strong consumer inflation reading earlier this week. 

Chinese shares- particularly major tech stocks in Hong Kong- remained key outperformers in Asia, especially after the release of the DeepSeek AI in late-January.

Australian markets also hit record highs, as investors positioned for an interest rate cut by the Reserve Bank of Australia next week. 

Other Asian markets were less upbeat. Japan’s Nikkei 225 and TOPIX indexes fell 0.5% and 0.1%, respectively, as local exporters were pressured by a sharp overnight recovery in the yen.

Singapore’s Straits Times index fell 0.4%, even as the country’s fourth-quarter gross domestic product grew much more than expected.

South Korea’s KOSPI added 0.4% on persistent gains in tech stocks, while futures for India’s Nifty 50 index pointed to a flat open, as investors digested mixed signals from a meeting between Trump and Prime Minister Narendra Modi. 

While Modi and Trump flagged plans for greater trade, defense and policy cooperation between Washington and Beijing, Trump still chided India’s steep duties on U.S. imports- which could attract greater reciprocal tariffs. 

Hong Kong stocks up as DeepSeek rally powers on

China’s Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 and Shanghai Composite indexes moved in a flat-to-low range. But Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index soared 1.6% and remained close to a four-month high.

Gains were fueled chiefly by sustained buying into heavyweight tech stocks, as the release of DeepSeek R1 in late-January fueled renewed optimism in China’s AI capabilities.

Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) analysts said that DeepSeek had helped shore up sentiment towards Chinese markets, especially the blue-chip A shares. But they warned that lingering weakness in other aspects of the country, especially a rampant disinflationary trend, had caused a divergence between tech and non-tech sectors. 

Australia shares hit record high on RBA rate cut bets 

Australia’s ASX 200 rose 0.5% to a record high of 8,615.20 points, on gains across most heavyweight sectors.

Local stocks were boosted by growing confidence that the RBA will cut interest rates by 25 basis points at a meeting next week, and kick off a shallow easing cycle on concerns over a slowing Australian economy. 

Some soft inflation data in recent weeks also fueled bets on an RBA cut, although inflation remained well above the central bank’s 2% to 3% target range. 

Australian stocks were also boosted by gains in major mining stocks, as traders bet that tropical cyclone Zelia- which is set to hit key mining regions in the country- will disrupt supplies, pushing up commodity prices.